Jin Shi Shu Ju·2026-02-05 09:07Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, has led investment banks to increase their bullish positions on gold while cautioning against heavy investments in silver [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling below $4,800, after a brief rebound earlier in the week [1]. - Despite the recent sell-off, many market observers, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, maintain a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $6,200 next month and $5,900 by year-end [2][3]. - UBS identifies that the current sell-off is a normal fluctuation within a structural uptrend, with no signs of a bull market ending [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a price of $5,400 per ounce by December 2026, supported by central banks increasing gold reserves and private investors boosting gold ETF purchases [2]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have seen a dramatic decline of over 30% from recent highs, with UBS suggesting that further declines are necessary for the metal to become attractive for investment [4][5]. - UBS highlights that silver's industrial demand complicates its price dynamics, as rising prices may suppress industrial usage [5]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs express caution regarding silver due to liquidity issues in the London market, which exacerbate price volatility [5]. - American Bank also holds a cautiously optimistic view on silver but notes potential upward resistance from declining solar panel demand [5]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment - The recent volatility in precious metals has created opportunities for investors seeking returns, despite the associated risks [2]. - UBS emphasizes the need for investors to carefully assess the expected returns on highly volatile assets like silver, which currently do not meet the required return thresholds [4]. - The market remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions and monetary policy changes, which could influence precious metal prices moving forward [1][3].