如何提高“以旧换新”受益人口覆盖率

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, implemented from 2024 to 2025, is supported by a total of 450 billion yuan in long-term special government bond funds, aiming to stimulate consumer spending and sales growth, although its multiplier effect appears weaker than expected [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The State Council issued measures in July 2024, allocating approximately 150 billion yuan for local support of the "old-for-new" policy, with an additional 300 billion yuan planned for 2025, expanding the range of eligible products from 8 to 12 categories [3]. - The estimated sales driven by the "old-for-new" policy for 2024 and 2025 are projected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from various product categories [4]. Group 2: Impact on Retail Sales - Retail sales growth for related product categories showed an initial acceleration followed by a decline, with significant growth in communication equipment and cultural office supplies, while home appliances and automotive sales growth lagged behind [6][7]. - The first year post-implementation saw a 10% increase in sales for related categories, but the second year showed only a 2% increase, indicating a diminishing effect of the policy [6]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics and Coverage - The total number of beneficiaries from the "old-for-new" policy was only 480 million, with participation rates among lower-income groups being particularly low, as the majority of beneficiaries were from higher-income brackets [11]. - The automotive sector accounted for 61.5% of the total consumption generated by the policy, highlighting the high average price of eligible products and the limited impact on lower-income consumers [11]. Group 4: Future Considerations and Adjustments - Proposed adjustments for the 2026 policy include expanding the subsidy range, lowering the average price of eligible products, and shifting focus towards job creation and income stability rather than solely on sales volume [10][12]. - The introduction of new product categories, such as smart glasses, aims to align with technological advancements and broaden consumer engagement [10].