Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-05 10:22Core Viewpoint - The overall trend for the RMB exchange rate in February 2026 is expected to be characterized by "two-way fluctuations with a slowing appreciation rate," maintaining a narrow range of volatility [2]. Group 1: Predicted Trends - The consensus among institutions is that the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate will fluctuate between 6.95 and 7.05, while the offshore rate will range from 6.93 to 7.08 [2]. - Factors such as seasonal dollar rebounds and reduced domestic settlement demand around the Spring Festival will limit the pace of RMB appreciation [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The dollar's performance and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are key external variables affecting the RMB exchange rate [3]. - Predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cuts vary, with Goldman Sachs suggesting potential cuts in Q1 and a small cut in Q3, while Mysteel anticipates three cuts throughout the year [3]. - The internal economic fundamentals show a mix of support and drag, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 providing hard support for the RMB [4]. - The seasonal nature of the Spring Festival will reduce corporate settlement demand, impacting short-term support for the RMB [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions share a consensus on "two-way fluctuations," but there are slight differences in their predictions regarding the appreciation extent and volatility range [7]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a slight appreciation, while Minsheng Bank predicts a significant slowdown in appreciation [7]. - Zhongyin Securities warns of the risks of unilateral bets, suggesting potential for slight corrections if the dollar rebounds unexpectedly [7]. Group 4: Practical Decision-Making Guidelines - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid unilateral bets and focus on risk hedging, prioritizing investments in core RMB assets such as new energy and biotechnology [9]. - Companies engaged in import and export should adopt a "risk-neutral" approach, utilizing multi-currency settlements to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [10].