2026年全球光伏新增装机将首次下行，中国市场会有何表现？

Group 1 - The global photovoltaic (PV) installation growth rate is expected to decline starting in 2026, with annual new installations projected between 725 to 870 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) [3] - In a typical scenario, global PV installations in 2026 are estimated at 500 GW, a decrease of 13.79% compared to 2025, while an optimistic scenario could see growth reaching 667 GW [3] - Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts a decline in global PV installations to 648 GW in 2026, attributing this to policy shifts and market saturation [3] Group 2 - The Chinese photovoltaic market is projected to have new installations between 180 to 240 GW in 2026, while Bloomberg estimates 321 GW for direct current and 264 GW for alternating current [4] - By the end of 2025, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 3.89 billion kW, with solar power capacity at 1.2 billion kW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.4% [4] - The peak for new installations in China is anticipated in 2025, with a record of 315.07 GW, while the average annual new installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan are estimated at 238 to 287 GW [4] Group 3 - The China Electricity Council forecasts that new power generation installations in 2026 will exceed 400 million kW, with renewable energy installations surpassing 300 million kW [5] - Solar power installations are expected to exceed coal power capacity for the first time, indicating a significant shift in the energy structure [5] - The photovoltaic industry is urged to transition from a focus on scale and price competition to value competition during the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing intelligent, green, and integrated development [5]