瑞银全球首席经济学家：股票或是最值得配置的资产｜全球财经连线

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow slightly above 3% in 2026, with emerging economies contributing about one-quarter of this growth, particularly from sectors like AI [2][10] - UBS predicts that US stocks may rise by approximately 10%, while European and Japanese markets could see gains of around 8% [1][18] - The impact of tariffs on trade has not yet fully materialized, with the effective tariff rate in the US around 11%, suggesting potential future declines in import demand [3][4] Group 2: US Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates twice this year, with a potential reduction of 50 basis points, which may not significantly impact the economy [7][8] - Concerns about inflation persist, with tariffs expected to contribute an additional 1.3 percentage points to inflation, indicating that the full effects of tariffs are yet to be seen [4][20] - The US labor market is showing signs of structural risks, with a significant portion of economic growth coming from AI investments and high-income spending [20][21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - China and Brazil are highlighted as key emerging markets for investment, offering exposure to AI and favorable valuation and profit growth prospects [1][19] - The technology sector is driving significant investment, with a notable concentration of funds in a few major companies, raising concerns about market breadth and potential future winners [12][14] - Investors are advised to focus on data-intensive and labor-intensive companies that could benefit from new technologies, as the market seeks the next beneficiaries of technological advancements [13][15] Group 4: Geopolitical and Market Risks - Geopolitical risks are acknowledged but are expected to have limited direct impact on financial markets, primarily affecting oil prices [21] - The potential for increased fiscal stimulus in the US, especially ahead of midterm elections, poses a significant risk to market stability, with concerns about rising fiscal deficits [20][21] - The current high level of pessimism among high-income households regarding employment prospects is noted as an unusual phenomenon, which could affect market sentiment [21]