【立方债市通】河南完成今年首批地方债发行/河南AAA平台完成发债15亿/地产阶段性改善对债市影响分析

Key Points - Local bond issuance has accelerated at the beginning of the year, with over 2.5 trillion yuan planned for the first quarter, marking a three-year high. This includes approximately 764.4 billion yuan in new special bonds and about 1.2106 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds, highlighting the dual goals of proactive fiscal policy and coordinated debt management to stabilize growth [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 130 billion yuan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds with a coupon rate of 1.66%, with the competitive bidding scheduled for February 10, 2026 [2] - Henan Province has completed its first batch of local bond issuance for 2026, totaling 804.72 billion yuan, which includes 35 billion yuan in new general bonds for infrastructure projects and 485.61 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [3] - In 2025, enterprises in Henan Province reported a total profit of 149.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 9%. State-owned enterprises saw a profit drop of 23.7%, while non-state enterprises experienced a slight increase of 1.1% [5] - The 2026 work report from Hubei Province emphasizes the importance of asset securitization through "listing and bond issuance" to address innovation development challenges [7] - The 2026 work report from Jiangxi Province highlights efforts to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent new hidden debts, with a focus on the exit of remaining local government financing platforms [9] - Several companies, including Henan Investment Group and Luoyang Urban Development Investment Group, have successfully issued bonds with varying amounts and interest rates, aimed at refinancing existing debts [11][13][14] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has terminated the review of three bond projects, totaling 2.5 billion yuan, indicating potential challenges in the private bond market [18] - Market analysis suggests that recent improvements in the real estate sector may lead to adjustments in bond market expectations, with a focus on the stability of property transactions and pricing in the coming months [20][21]