英国央行如预期“按兵不动” 然而5:4分裂投票点燃进一步降息押注

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England narrowly voted to maintain interest rates at 3.75%, igniting market hopes for a potential rate cut next month, with inflation expected to fall below the target of 2% by April [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to keep rates unchanged was made with a 5-4 vote, with Governor Andrew Bailey being a key swing vote [1]. - The MPC's decision was more dovish than economists had anticipated, as the market had not priced in such a close vote [1][2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is now over 50%, with expectations of a total cut of 45 basis points by year-end [2]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Bank of England predicts inflation will return to the 2% target by April and remain below this target for most of 2027 [2][3]. - Economic growth forecasts have been significantly downgraded to 0.9% for this year, down from 1.2%, and to 1.5% for 2027, down from 1.6% [4]. - The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 5.3% in the second quarter of this year, higher than the current official figure of 5.1% [5]. Group 3: Labor Market and Wage Growth - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with companies reducing hiring and increasing layoffs [3]. - The Bank of England expects wage growth to be limited to 3.25% this year, aligning with the 2% inflation target [6]. - The central bank remains optimistic about productivity but maintains its long-term economic growth potential at around 1.4% [6].