去年广义财政支出首次突破40万亿，今年支出如何扩大

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy for the first time, with total fiscal spending exceeding 40 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2][3] Fiscal Spending and Revenue - The total fiscal spending in 2025 is projected to be approximately 40.03 trillion yuan, while fiscal revenue is expected to be around 27.38 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of about 2.9% [2] - The fiscal deficit will exceed 12.65 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [2] - The general public budget expenditure is estimated at 28.74 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 1%, while government fund expenditure is expected to reach 11.29 trillion yuan, growing by 11.3% [3] Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The fiscal policy aims to counter economic downturn pressures by increasing the deficit ratio and expanding debt scale, thereby maintaining necessary spending intensity [2][3] - The structure of public budget expenditure is continuously optimized, focusing on social security, education, and health, which are projected to grow at rates of 6.7%, 3.2%, and 5.7% respectively, significantly above the average growth rate of 1% [3][4] Revenue Challenges - The general public budget revenue is expected to decline to approximately 21.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous year, with tax revenue slightly increasing by 0.8% to about 17.64 trillion yuan [8] - Non-tax revenue is projected to drop by 11.3% to around 3.97 trillion yuan, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [8][9] Government Debt and Financing - The government bond issuance scale and net financing are expected to reach new highs in 2025, with net financing projected at 13.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.54 trillion yuan year-on-year [10][9] Future Fiscal Strategy - In 2026, the fiscal policy is anticipated to further strengthen, with an expected deficit rate of around 4% and new special bond quotas potentially reaching 5 trillion yuan [12][13] - The fiscal expenditure structure is expected to shift more towards supporting residents, with increased spending on social security and consumer incentives [14]