Microsoft Plunges 14% Post Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Microsoft (MSFT) shares dropped approximately 14% following the release of its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings, despite beating revenue and earnings estimates with non-GAAP EPS of $4.14 and revenue of $81.3 billion, reflecting a 17% year-over-year growth [1][7] Financial Performance - The cloud infrastructure segment remains a key growth driver, with Azure and other cloud services growing 39% in constant currency, although this is a slight deceleration from the previous quarter's 40% growth [3] - Microsoft Cloud revenues surpassed $50 billion for the first time, reaching $51.5 billion with a 26% year-over-year growth, but gross margins compressed to just over 68%, the narrowest level in three years due to heavy AI infrastructure investments [3][7] - Commercial bookings surged to 230%, up from 112% in the previous quarter, with remaining performance obligations reaching $625 billion, indicating strong enterprise demand for Microsoft's offerings [4][7] Segment Performance - The Productivity and Business Processes segment generated $34.1 billion in revenues, reflecting a 16% growth, driven by the adoption of Microsoft 365 services [4] - The More Personal Computing division faced challenges, with revenues declining approximately 3% to $14.25 billion, and gaming revenues falling 9.5% due to an unspecified impairment charge [5] Future Guidance - For fiscal Q3, Microsoft projects revenues between $80.65 billion and $81.75 billion, implying growth of approximately 15% to 17%, with Azure revenue growth expected at 37% to 38% in constant currency [6][7] - Operating margins are anticipated to decline slightly year-over-year, but management raised full fiscal year 2026 operating margin expectations [7] AI Integration and Competitive Landscape - Microsoft is expanding AI capabilities across its product portfolio, with recent enhancements in Excel and Outlook, although monetization of these features is still in early stages [9] - Microsoft trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.67, a premium compared to the industry average of 7.03, reflecting the market's recognition of its cloud position [10] - Over the past six months, Microsoft shares have lost 21.1%, underperforming competitors like Alphabet and Amazon, which have seen significant returns [13] Investment Considerations - The investment case for Microsoft includes strong competitive positioning in enterprise cloud, a massive backlog of contracted future revenues, and leadership in generative AI applications [17] - However, elevated capital expenditure requirements, compressed margins, and capacity constraints create uncertainty regarding near-term financial performance [17]