2025年是斐济通胀周期的转折点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2025 marks a significant turning point in Fiji's inflation cycle, transitioning from long-term price pressures to a mix of tradeable goods-driven inflation and service-driven deflation [1] - According to Westpac Bank, Fiji's overall inflation is projected to be 2.5% at the beginning of 2025, but it is expected to drop below zero starting in February, remaining negative for most of the year [1] - The average inflation rate for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.4%, primarily driven by tradeable goods rather than the service sector [1] Group 2 - In 2025, food and non-alcoholic beverages are expected to decline by an average of 3.3%, while transportation categories are projected to decrease by an average of 4.8% [1] - The service sector is facing persistent inflationary pressures, with alcoholic beverages and tobacco growing at an annual rate of 3.1%, restaurants and hotels at 2.9%, and miscellaneous goods and services at 5.6% [1] - Westpac Bank indicates that Fiji is currently experiencing widespread tradeable goods-driven deflation, while certain services and regulated categories continue to see inflation [1] Group 3 - Due to a decrease in global refining output and a weaker US dollar, domestic fuel prices in Fiji are expected to remain stable in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - Light fuel prices, such as alcohol and premixed fuel, are anticipated to rise starting in the second quarter, but overall prices will remain steady [2] - The overall inflation risk for 2026 is tilted towards the upside, with a projected inflation rate of 2.8% by the end of the year and an average inflation rate of 1.4% [3]