Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-05 21:02Core Insights - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the AI agent industry, with significant policy developments, accelerated actions from tech giants, and increased capital market investments [1][3] - There are differing opinions on the current state of competition in the AI agent space, with some believing that leading players like ByteDance and Alibaba have initiated a peak competition, while others argue that the market is still in its infancy due to technological limitations and ecosystem challenges [1][5] Investment Trends - The popularity of AI agents is reflected in capital movements, with five out of the top ten investment sectors in 2025 being directly related to AI agents [3] - Approximately 20% of new unicorns are centered around AI technology, indicating a crowded and competitive landscape with over 120 domestic AI agent platforms [3][4] AI Agent Maturity Levels - AI agents can be categorized into three levels: "basic" agents for simple tasks, "upgraded" agents capable of more complex operations, and future "complete" agents that may operate autonomously like humans [3][4] - Currently, most domestic AI agents are still at the "basic" level, performing tasks such as PPT creation and translation, with only a few, like Doubao and Qianwen, reaching the "upgraded" level [4][5] Competitive Landscape - The competitive hierarchy is emerging, with ByteDance and Alibaba leading as "seed players" capable of providing comprehensive solutions, followed by specialized players and those offering technical tools [7] - The Chinese AI agent market is expected to be dominated by large enterprises, which will hold about 80% market share due to their clear business needs and data foundations [7] Advantages of Leading Players - ByteDance and Alibaba's competitive edge stems from their self-developed large models, extensive ecosystems, and profitable products that can be scaled [8][11] - Alibaba's ecosystem is seen as a "super entrance" for activating its vast commercial network, while ByteDance leverages its traffic advantages through platforms like Douyin and TikTok [11][12] Challenges Faced by Leading Players - Despite their advantages, both companies face challenges: Alibaba's ecosystem is heavily reliant on its own platforms, limiting cross-platform collaboration, while ByteDance's late entry into the market has resulted in a lack of deep industry knowledge [12][14] - The competition is fierce, with predictions that 90% of AI agents may be overshadowed by large models, making it difficult for smaller players to compete [13] Market Dynamics - The AI agent market is characterized by a complex and broad landscape, suggesting that no single company can dominate entirely, leading to a multi-track, differentiated competition [18] - While ByteDance and Alibaba currently lead, there remains room for other players to carve out niches in vertical markets and through technological differentiation [18]