中金：美联储最终降息幅度或超出市场预期，美元宽松交易可能在短期回归

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to "taper" in the short term, while the threshold for continued "expansion" and quantitative easing (QE) has significantly increased [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve may not be willing to support fiscal easing through "expansion," leading to a potential new temporary monetary-fiscal coordination method [1] - This method could involve increasing the rate of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury issuing more short-term debt [1] - The process may first promote financial deregulation before initiating "tapering" [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The ultimate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may exceed market expectations, potentially leading to a return of dollar easing trades in the short term [1] - The steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, combined with financial deregulation, is favorable for U.S. bank stocks [1] Group 3: Commodity and Stock Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve may determine the endpoint of the gold bull market, although this turning point has not yet arrived [1] - Chinese stocks and global commodities are currently under temporary pressure, awaiting a return of easing expectations [1]