中金：美联储或将决定黄金牛市的终点，但这一拐点尚未到来

Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to "taper" its balance sheet, while the threshold for continuing "expansion" and quantitative easing (QE) has significantly increased [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve may not be willing to support fiscal easing through "expansion" of its balance sheet, leading to a potential new temporary monetary-fiscal coordination method [1] - This method could involve increasing the rate of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury issuing more short-term debt [1] - The process may first promote financial deregulation before initiating the "tapering" process [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The ultimate rate cut by the Federal Reserve may exceed market expectations, potentially leading to a return of dollar easing trades in the short term [1] - The steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, combined with financial deregulation, is favorable for U.S. bank stocks [1] - The Federal Reserve's decisions may determine the end of the gold bull market, although this turning point has not yet arrived [1] Group 3: Global Market Outlook - Chinese stocks and global commodities are currently under temporary pressure, awaiting a return of easing expectations [1]