油价春节前仍有大波动？

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in domestic and international crude oil futures have entered a "volatile mode," with significant daily price swings but an overall upward trend driven by geopolitical risks and supply concerns [1][2]. Geopolitical Factors - The primary driver of recent oil price movements is the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations, which have been marked by significant volatility [1][2]. - Events such as the U.S. military shooting down an Iranian drone have heightened tensions and contributed to oil price increases, while subsequent news of negotiations resuming has led to price corrections [2]. - Other geopolitical factors, including the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the U.S.-India trade agreement, are also influencing global oil market dynamics [2]. Supply Side Changes - A historic winter storm in North America recently caused a temporary drop in U.S. crude oil production by approximately 2 million barrels per day due to refinery shutdowns [3]. - Kazakhstan's oil production and export levels have also fallen below market expectations in the past two months, contributing to short-term supply relief [3]. - However, as weather conditions improve, U.S. oil production is expected to recover, potentially leading to renewed supply surplus pressures in the market [3]. Market Outlook - High volatility in the oil market is expected to persist, particularly influenced by geopolitical developments leading up to and following the Chinese New Year [4]. - The overall market is characterized by a supply surplus, with global oil inventories on the rise, suggesting a continued loose supply environment [4]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, as any escalation in geopolitical tensions could lead to short-term price spikes, but such increases may not be sustainable [4].