Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-06 00:20Core Viewpoint - The transition in leadership at the Federal Reserve should not be automatically equated with a major market trend shift; the impact of its policies on the fundamentals of the U.S. economy will be the cornerstone of dollar pricing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - A Federal Reserve led by Walsh may initiate a profound shift in the central bank's role, moving from a post-financial crisis support system to a more traditional approach focused on rules and discipline [1] - Short-term expectations indicate a strengthening of the dollar, while a long-term "slow bear" trend is anticipated [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise, putting pressure on prices; if policies are credible, long-term inflation expectations may stabilize around 2% [1] - Global stock markets are likely to face short-term pressure, with a potential recovery in U.S. stocks after an initial decline [1] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - The core logic for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid, with central bank purchases of gold expected to continue [1] - Any flaws in dollar credibility could accelerate the construction of a multipolar reserve system globally [1]