宝城期货：螺纹钢继续承压运行

Core Viewpoint - Rebar prices are expected to remain low in 2026, with main contract prices narrowing to a range of 3100 to 3180 yuan per ton, influenced by weak seasonal demand and a significant price drop in the East China market [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Rebar production has rebounded significantly from low levels, with weekly production reaching 1.9983 million tons as of January 30, marking an increase of 210,500 tons since mid-December [2] - Long-process steel mills have driven the production increase, contributing 1.6762 million tons, up by 164,000 tons from recent lows, while short-process steel mills also saw production rise to 322,100 tons [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, production is expected to gradually decrease, with a focus on the resumption pace of short-process steel mills post-holiday [2] Group 2: Demand Trends - Rebar demand has shown a clear seasonal decline, with weekly apparent consumption at 1.764 million tons, down by 240,400 tons week-on-week and 136,500 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 7.18% [3] - Daily average sales of construction steel by major national traders fell to 83,700 tons, a 14.46% decrease, indicating a significant seasonal drop [3] - Related demand indicators, such as cement and concrete shipments, are also at low levels, reinforcing the weak demand for construction steel [3] Group 3: Inventory and Market Pressure - Rebar inventory has reached a turning point, with total inventory at 4.7553 million tons as of January 30, increasing by 535,000 tons, a rise of 12.68% [4] - The current inventory level is relatively low compared to recent years but remains higher than the same period last year, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 2.696, up by 22.6% year-on-year [4] - The combination of rising supply and weak demand is expected to keep rebar prices under pressure, with significant inventory accumulation anticipated during the holiday period [4]