有色金属ETF天弘(159157)今日上市！供给偏紧叠加周期上行，工业有色迎长期配置窗口

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme ETF (code: 159157) will be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange starting February 6, 2026, indicating a growing interest in the nonferrous metals sector [1]. Product Highlights - The industrial nonferrous metals sector is relatively concentrated, with the top three industries being copper (31.1%), aluminum (21.9%), and rare earths (16.1%), collectively accounting for about 70% [2]. - The rapid development of the AI industry is expected to drive up demand for electricity, which in turn will boost the demand for industrial nonferrous metals. Supply growth is anticipated to be limited in the coming years, suggesting a long-term upward trend for upstream resources [2]. - Rare earth metals are becoming increasingly important as strategic national resources, with China holding the world's largest reserves and production. This gives China a significant advantage in resource endowment, smelting technology, and overall cost, enhancing their investment value [2]. - The resource sector is entering an upward cycle, with upstream resources positioned more favorably compared to downstream manufacturing. A tight supply situation is expected to persist, making long-term price increases likely [2]. - Index-based investment is seen as a valuable strategy due to the diverse sub-industries within nonferrous metals, making it challenging for active research to cover all areas effectively [2]. Hot Events - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced plans to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve system, which aims to enhance China's bargaining power in the copper supply chain and improve supply chain resilience and security [4]. - This initiative aligns with the previously released "Copper Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)," which seeks to shift the focus of the copper industry from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement [4]. Institutional Views - Guoyuan Securities noted that the nonferrous metals industry remains robust amid global instability, with tightening supply conditions and increasing mining difficulties supporting long-term price increases for copper [5]. - The demand outlook is strong, driven by emerging industries such as AI, electric vehicles, and renewable energy, which are transforming many metals into "critical strategic materials" with sustained demand [5]. - Heightened international strategic competition is leading to tighter controls on strategic metals, further increasing price pressures and creating clear structural investment opportunities in related sectors [5].