中金：燃料电池行业短期承压 政策与场景创新驱动长期潜力

Core Viewpoint - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is lagging behind expectations, with significant gaps remaining to meet targets. The fuel cell industry is facing challenges such as weak growth, poor profitability, and accounts receivable backlog. However, with the clear hydrogen energy strategy in China, there is hope for new supportive policies and the continuous expansion of application scenarios, suggesting that the fuel cell industry may gradually overcome short-term difficulties and has substantial long-term growth potential [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 4Q25, a surge in demand for fuel cell vehicles is expected, but there remains a gap to meet the 2025 phased targets. Since 2024, the sales momentum for fuel cell vehicles has been insufficient, influenced by the policy window period, leading to a rush in 4Q25 [2]. - The average price of fuel cell systems has decreased by nearly 90% since 2018, which poses significant challenges to the profitability of fuel cell manufacturers, indicating that the industry is still in a bottoming phase [2]. Group 2: Bottlenecks in Promotion - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles faces multiple obstacles: first, the reduction of subsidies has highlighted cost disadvantages, intensifying competition from electric vehicles; second, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations has not met expectations, creating challenges in refueling convenience, while the high costs of building these stations reduce investment incentives; third, the long cycle of subsidy fund disbursement has led to a backlog of accounts receivable, which may pressure company operations and limit the R&D and expansion capabilities of fuel cell manufacturers [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, China positions hydrogen energy as a key component of its future energy system, viewing it as an important means to achieve carbon neutrality in non-electric sectors. On the policy front, various local hydrogen industry plans are being advanced, with supportive measures such as toll fee reductions and the construction of "hydrogen corridors" being implemented. In terms of applications, the use of fuel cells is expanding from transportation to power generation, energy storage, and rail transit, indicating a potential second growth curve that supports the medium to long-term development of the industry [4]. - The industry is viewed positively for its medium to long-term development, with recommendations to pay attention to fuel cell system manufacturers such as Yihuatong and Zhongshuo Energy [4].