美债收益率曲线逼近四年最陡纪录 降息预期叠加赤字隐忧推高期限溢价

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is at its steepest level in over four years due to interest rate cuts and concerns over persistent inflation and fiscal deficits [1] Group 1: Yield Curve Dynamics - The additional yield of the 10-year Treasury compared to the 2-year Treasury expanded to 73.7 basis points, just below the peak of 73.8 basis points reached in April, marking the highest level since January 2022 [1] - The widening spread is attributed to signs of a weakening job market, prompting traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy this year [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Overnight index swaps indicate that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate before June, with a total of two to three rate cuts of 25 basis points each anticipated this year [1] - Despite Kevin Warsh, a potential Federal Reserve chair nominee with a hawkish reputation, the market speculates he may still favor lower interest rates [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Martin Whetton, head of financial market strategy at Westpac, noted that while the curve has experienced a significant parallel shift, weak employment data presents more downside risks for front-end yields [1] - Comments from the U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee earlier this week suggested that the timing of increased supply may come sooner than the expected November, contributing to a steeper yield curve [1]