万腾外汇：美元指数震荡上行收涨 市场交投活跃

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced a volatile upward trend, closing at 97.86, reflecting a 0.38% increase from the previous trading day, influenced by external currency environments and market reactions to Federal Reserve officials' statements [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dollar index opened at 97.535 and fluctuated between 97.45 and 97.63 during the Asian session, before rising to a high of 97.87 in the New York session [1]. - The trading volume increased to 19,200 contracts, up from 11,900 contracts in the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [1]. - The divergence in non-US currencies, particularly the weakening of the British pound due to the Bank of England's decisions, indirectly supported the dollar's strength [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that no further rate cuts would be supported until inflation returns to the 2% target, highlighting a focus on inflation stagnation [3]. - Market expectations regarding the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Fed Chair suggest a cautious approach towards rate cuts and maintaining a smaller balance sheet [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in March has decreased, reflecting changing market sentiments [3]. Group 3: Economic Data and Technical Analysis - Recent ADP employment data showed weakness, indicating a potential negative growth in the labor market, while key data such as January non-farm payrolls and CPI have been delayed, leading to increased market caution [3]. - The technical analysis indicates that the dollar index is within a Bollinger Band convergence range, with the middle band at 97.77 acting as a focal point, while the upper and lower bands are at 98.73 and 96.82, respectively [3][4]. - The dollar index has not established a clear trend, continuing to exhibit a range-bound pattern between the recent low of 96.21 and the upper resistance near 98.59 [4].