Old Dominion hoping stars align in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Old Dominion Freight Line's leadership expressed optimism about demand recovery, citing lean inventories and positive manufacturing data as indicators for improved volumes in the upcoming year [1][3]. Group 1: Demand Indicators - Recent customer conversations indicate lean inventories, suggesting potential demand improvement [1]. - January manufacturing data showed a Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 52.6, indicating expansion and a significant increase of 470 basis points from December [3]. - The new orders subindex surged to 57.1, up 970 basis points, marking the highest reading since February 2022 [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Old Dominion reported Q4 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09, which was 3 cents above consensus but 14 cents lower year-over-year [6]. - Revenue for Q4 was $1.31 billion, down 6% year-over-year but slightly above consensus estimates [6]. - Tonnage per day decreased by 11% year-over-year, with daily shipments down 10% and weight per shipment down 1% [7]. Group 3: Operational Insights - The average weight per shipment increased to 1,520 pounds in December, which is 100 basis points ahead of the normal seasonal pattern [5]. - Revenue per hundredweight increased by 6% in Q4, with a 5% increase when excluding fuel surcharges [7]. - The operating ratio for Q4 was reported at 76.7%, an increase of 80 basis points year-over-year [6].