就业市场疲弱提振降息预期 美债收益率曲线逼近四年来最陡峭水平

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is nearing its steepest level in over four years, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations, persistent inflation, and concerns over fiscal deficits [1] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds widened to 73.7 basis points, close to the peak of 73.8 basis points reached in April last year, marking the highest level since January 2022 [1] - Weak signals from the U.S. labor market have led traders to increase bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, further steepening the yield curve [1] Group 2 - In January, U.S. companies announced the highest number of layoffs since the Great Recession in 2009, with 108,435 job cuts, a 118% increase year-over-year [2] - Job openings in December fell to 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020, significantly below market expectations [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate in June, with predictions of two to three cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year [2] Group 3 - The return on U.S. Treasuries has been 0.4% this month, as investors seek safety amid a weakening stock market, particularly in the software sector [5] - Short-term U.S. Treasuries, which are more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations, have led the gains in the bond market [5] - The Treasury's borrowing advisory committee indicated that new debt supply may arrive earlier than previously expected, contributing to the steepening of the yield curve [5]