这项条约到期，这两个核大国的较量少了道“紧箍”

Core Points - The New START treaty, the last existing agreement limiting nuclear weapons between Russia and the U.S., is set to expire on February 5, 2026, highlighting its critical importance as other nuclear treaties have been abandoned [1][2] - The treaty, signed in 2010, limits both countries to 1,550 nuclear warheads and a maximum of 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers [2] - The treaty was extended for five years in 2021, but recent tensions have led to Russia suspending its participation in verification mechanisms and expressing a willingness to take military countermeasures [2][4] Group 1 - The New START treaty is the only remaining agreement that includes notification, verification, and compliance mechanisms between the U.S. and Russia, who together hold 87% of the world's nuclear weapons [1] - Russia's Foreign Ministry announced a temporary withdrawal from the treaty's verification mechanisms in August 2022, citing U.S. actions that undermine mutual trust [2] - In February 2023, President Putin announced Russia's suspension of participation in the treaty, although the Kremlin stated that Russia would still adhere to the treaty's limits on nuclear weapons [2][4] Group 2 - The relationship between Trump and Putin was initially seen as potentially beneficial for treaty renewal, but Trump's later stance on nuclear testing raised concerns [3] - Analysts suggest that Russia's strong rhetoric may be a strategy to negotiate from a position of strength, as nuclear weapons serve primarily as a deterrent [5] - The U.S. is reportedly negotiating with Russia to continue adhering to the treaty, with discussions taking place in Abu Dhabi [4] Group 3 - Trump's administration aims to include China in a new nuclear arms control treaty, rather than extending the New START treaty [6] - China's stance on nuclear weapons is characterized by a commitment to a defensive strategy and a refusal to engage in an arms race, maintaining its nuclear capabilities at a minimum level [6] - The U.S. may need to revert to bilateral negotiations with Russia on nuclear arms control, given the complexities of involving China [7] Group 4 - Criticism of Trump's approach to nuclear arms control has emerged from U.S. lawmakers, who argue that his administration has neglected this critical area [8] - The UN Secretary-General has expressed concern over the lack of binding constraints on the nuclear arsenals of the two countries, warning of a potential new arms race [8] - The expiration of the New START treaty is viewed as a significant threat to global strategic stability, with fears that it could lead to a breakdown in the international nuclear arms control framework [8]