山西证券：反内卷政策托底煤价 煤炭供应或受约束

Core Viewpoint - The coal market in China is experiencing a significant adjustment in December 2025, with a notable decline in prices due to strong supply and weak demand factors, despite expectations for improved performance in coal companies in Q4 2025 and potential recovery in 2026 [1][6][7] Supply - In December 2025, China's raw coal production reached 437 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1% but a month-on-month increase of 2.40% [2] - The total raw coal output for 2025 is projected to be 4.832 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, although the growth rate has marginally declined compared to the previous month [2] Demand - The terminal demand for coal is expected to decline in 2025, with fixed asset investment decreasing by 3.8%, including a 17.2% drop in real estate investment [3] - In December 2025, the growth rates for various sectors were negative, including thermal power at -3.2%, pig iron at -9.9%, and cement at -6.6% [3] Imports - Coal imports in December 2025 saw a significant month-on-month increase of 33.02%, totaling 58.6 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 11.95% [4] - However, the total coal import volume for 2025 is expected to be 490 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [4] Prices - December 2025 witnessed a decline in coal prices across various types, with the average prices for Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal, Beijing-Tangshan main coking coal, and Tianjin secondary metallurgical coke all adjusting downwards [5][6] Market Dynamics - The adjustment in coal prices is attributed to strong supply and weak demand, with factors such as weather, renewable energy, and real estate failing to support coal demand adequately [6] - Despite concerns over the rapid price decline in December, the trend of "anti-involution" remains unchanged, with expectations for policy support to stabilize prices in January 2026 [7] Investment Focus - Companies to watch in the thermal coal sector include Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH), and others [8] - In the coking coal sector, focus on Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ), Huaibei Mining (600985.SH), and Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) [8]