瑞银：白银单月波动率突破100%，短期内还将剧烈波动

Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic decline in silver prices has raised questions among investors about where the bottom lies and when a recovery might occur [8] Group 1: Price Movements and Volatility - Silver prices experienced a nearly 30% drop last Friday and have struggled to stabilize, with a subsequent 19% decline on Thursday after brief rebounds earlier in the week [9] - UBS strategists noted that the recent drop appears driven more by widespread risk aversion than by fundamental collapse, warning that extreme volatility poses significant risks for short-term positions [9] - The one-month volatility of silver has exceeded 100%, indicating potential for severe price fluctuations in the short term [9] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - UBS forecasts a supply deficit of nearly 300 million ounces this year, with investment demand expected to exceed 400 million ounces, although high prices may suppress industrial demand [9] - The London Stock Exchange (LSEG) reported that silver has recorded 11 instances of price movements of 5% or more since the beginning of the year [9] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, UBS believes the long-term fundamentals for silver remain intact, driven by declining nominal and real interest rates, global debt issues, dollar depreciation, and expectations of global economic recovery by 2026 [9] - Vasu Menon from OCBC maintains a structural bullish outlook for silver, suggesting that it possesses dual characteristics of precious and industrial metals, which can make it vulnerable during periods of heightened risk aversion [11] - Menon set a long-term price target for silver at $134 per ounce by March 2027, highlighting its applications in solar energy, catalysts, and electronics [11] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Nicky Shiels from MKS PAMP indicated that silver's recent performance lacks similarities to past bull markets driven by physical supply constraints, labeling it as a "meme commodity" due to its extreme volatility [10] - The expansion of retail channels has amplified speculative capital flows into silver, with expectations that prices may need to digest excess pressure from previous gains before rebounding, potentially dropping to $60 per ounce [10]