Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-06 06:19Core Viewpoint - MGM China (02282) is expected to see a 29% year-on-year increase in property EBITDA to HKD 2.753 billion in Q4 2025, exceeding both the bank's and market expectations by 9% due to higher-than-average VIP win rates at MGM Cotai [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The total gaming revenue market share for MGM China increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 16.3% [1] - Net revenue for MGM China grew by 21% year-on-year to HKD 9.617 billion, surpassing the bank's forecast by 2% [1] - The estimated EBITDA contribution from the above-average VIP win rate at MGM Cotai was HKD 233 million, indicating that the normalized EBITDA would be HKD 2.520 billion when excluding this impact [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The property EBITDA margin improved by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 26.8%, approaching the company's target range of high 20% [1] - Effective control of operating expenses and rebates is reflected in the sustained EBITDA margin [1] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - MGM China is currently trading at a forecasted enterprise value multiple of 7.2 times, maintaining an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 20.9 [1]