思源电气(002028)：海内外需求共振 公司业绩持续向好*肖

Group 1: Company Performance - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 21.205 billion yuan for the full year of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.18% [1] - The anticipated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 3.163 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54.35% [1] - For Q4, the company forecasts a revenue of 7.38 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 46.1%, and a net profit of 970 million yuan, up 74.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The "14th Five-Year" investment plan for the power grid exceeds expectations, with the State Grid announcing a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the "15th Five-Year" period (2026-2030), a 40% increase from the previous plan, averaging 800 billion yuan annually [2] - Key investment areas are expected to include ultra-high voltage, distribution networks, and smart grids, which will benefit the company as it deepens its domestic market presence [2] - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the growth in power grid investments, as State Grid and Southern Grid are important clients [2] Group 3: Export Opportunities - There is a growing shortage of transformers overseas, particularly due to accelerated data center construction in North America, which is expected to drive export growth [2] - The company's transformer export value is projected to reach 64.6 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 36%, marking a historical high [2] - As of the first half of 2025, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 33.68% of total revenue, an increase of 9.12 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in international sales [2] Group 4: Investment Recommendation - The company is a leading domestic transformer manufacturer and is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures by the State Grid and the growing demand for its products overseas [3] - EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.05, 5.37, and 7.36 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 47.3, 35.7, and 26.0 [3] - The company has been given a "Buy-A" rating for its investment potential [3]