神农集团(605296)：养殖成本进一步改善*陈振志

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant decline in net profit for 2025, primarily due to a substantial drop in pig sales prices despite an increase in sales volume and a decrease in breeding costs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 313 to 384 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 44.09% to 54.43% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 278 to 349 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 49.92% to 60.11% [1] - The company anticipates a sales volume of 3.0742 million pigs in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.34%, with a sales revenue of 4.729 billion yuan, up 5.21% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cost and Production Efficiency - The breeding cost continues to decline, with the total cost expected to drop to 12.3 yuan per kilogram for 2025, including a production cost of 11.4 yuan per kilogram and an expense amortization of 0.9 yuan per kilogram [2] - The company achieved a PSY (Pigs per Sow per Year) of 29.5 and a feed conversion ratio of 2.45-2.48, indicating improved overall production performance compared to 2024 [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 346 million, 511 million, and 823 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.66, 0.97, and 1.57 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 29 times for 2026, and the investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate-B" [3]