建议关注养殖股产能去化逻辑的回归和演绎 农林牧渔行业近一年市场表现 本周（3 月 16 日-3 月 22 日），沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为-2.19%，农林牧 渔板块涨跌幅为-4.50%，板块排名第 17；子行业中生猪养殖、肉鸡养殖、 动物保健、畜禽饲料、粮油加工表现位居前五。 农林牧渔 农业行业周报 同步大市-A（维持) 本周猪价环比续跌，生猪养殖利润亏损扩大。截至 3 月 20 日，四川/广 东/河南外三元生猪均价分别为 9.85/10.61/9.88 元/公斤，环比上周分别- 3.90%/-3.19%/-2.47%；平均猪肉价格为 15.98 元/公斤，环比上周-1.18%。截 至 3 月 20 日，自繁自养利润为-297.68 元/头，环比上周下滑约 14.53 元/头； 外购仔猪养殖利润为-141.48 元/头，环比上周下滑约 23.30 元/头。 饲料行业的竞争已经从单纯的产品竞争逐渐进入到产业链价值的竞争， 行业加速整合，市场份额进一步往具有研发优势、规模优势、产业链配套服 务优势等头部企业集中。在行业整合的大趋势下，我们看好海大集团的机 会：（1）公司凭借高效的内部管理、有效的业务激励、以及突 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is currently facing significant challenges, with pig prices dropping below 10 RMB/kg, reaching a nearly seven-year low, and some areas reporting prices below 9.5 RMB/kg. The average weight of pigs at market remains at a five-year high, indicating that inventory reduction is the primary focus, with no signs of price stabilization [1][1][1]. - The industry is experiencing an average loss of over 350 RMB per head, placing it in a historically deep loss zone [1][1][1]. Key Insights - The price of weaned piglets has seen a seasonal decline post-Chinese New Year, with current prices around 280 RMB per head. Exporting piglets is not profitable, leading some companies to incur losses on exports [1][1][1]. - Despite some demand for piglets from specialized fattening households and free-range groups, the price guidance before September is only around 12 RMB+, suggesting limited potential for price recovery, with risks of falling below cost levels again [1][1][1]. Cost Challenges - The industry has experienced rapid cost reductions over the past two years, primarily due to favorable conditions such as lower feed raw material prices and improved production efficiency from upgraded breeding stock. However, the industry now faces new challenges that may lead to rising costs [3][3][3]. - **Feed Price Increases**: Corn prices have risen nearly 10% year-on-year due to mold issues in North China, while soybean meal faces uncertainties related to customs and tariffs, keeping spot prices strong [3][3][3]. - **Production Efficiency Challenges**: The peak of production efficiency improvements from breeding stock replacements has passed, and during this low cycle, maintaining production, operations, disease control, and employee motivation becomes increasingly difficult, negatively impacting efficiency [3][3][3]. - **Capacity Utilization Issues**: Companies are unable to expand further, leading to underutilization of fattening capacity and difficulties in starting up delivered pig farms, which will affect cost amortization [3][3][3]. Market Outlook - The combination of losses across all segments of pig farming and rising costs suggests a clearer logic for accelerated capacity reduction. Companies with high costs and debt levels are likely to be the primary candidates for capacity exit [3][3][3]. - There is optimism for left-side investment opportunities in the sector, with recommended stocks including Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, Shennong, Tiankang, Lihua, and Juxing [4][4][4].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2012]112 2026-03-22 活体库存去化过程开启 姓名：朱殿霄 从业资格号：F3079229 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018269 一 数据概览及行情观点 数据概览及行情策略 | 维度 | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上期 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 解析与预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格 | 标猪全国均价 | 元/公斤 | 9.87 | 10.03 | -0.16 | -1.60% | 本周现货价格继续下滑，钢联数据显示3月20日当周全国毛猪均价9.87元/公斤，环比下跌0.16 元/公斤。全国毛猪均价全线跌破10元/公斤，白条价格跟随下跌。 | | | 标猪河南均价 | 元/公斤 | 9.94 | 9.99 | -0.05 | -0.50% | | | | 标猪陕西均价（最优交割地） | 元/公斤 | 10.83 | 11.6 | -0.77 | -6.64% | | | | 白条价格 | 元/公斤 | 13.15 | 15.3 | -2.15 | -14.05% | | | ...

农林牧渔行业：节后猪价加速下行， 产能去化在即 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季不旺，年后加速探底。农业农村部监测数据显示，2026 年 2 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 27.57 元/公斤、12.82 元/公斤和 23.73 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 8.62%、-2.73%和 1.43%。2 月猪价年前转跌，3 月猪价加速下行，截至 3 月 10 日，全国外三元生猪均价 10.40 元/公斤。 供应端：2 月有效出栏天数因春节假期缩减，节前出栏集中，市场生猪供应充 足；节后养殖端出栏积极性持续，规模场出栏节奏逐步恢复，供给端持续放量。 需求端：春节后需求支撑消退，消费进入传统淡季，终端走货不畅。2 月生猪 屠宰开工率环比下降 8.22 个百分点至 28.02%。节后饲料成本上调，二次育肥 养殖户对短期猪价信心不足，入场谨慎，难以对猪价形成有效支撑。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头，相 比 10 月末进一步下降。从三方数据来看，2 月涌益能繁存栏样本数据环比回 升 0.73%，钢联样本数据环比下降 0.02%。我们预计，2 月底以来行业步入深 度 ...

证券分析师：盛瀚 A0230522080006 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 胡静航 A0230524090002 2026.3.18 内容提要：拥抱周期反转 证 券 研 究 报 告 拥抱周期反转 2026年农林牧渔行业春季投资策略 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 生猪养殖：至暗时刻将至，产能去化提速在即。春节之后，生猪价格加速下跌，3月价格跌破全行业现金 成本。向后展望，进入消费淡季，供给压力仍大，预计肥猪价格将继续探底，叠加饲料价格回升，行业现金 流压力不断累积，与此同时仔猪价格大概率快速回落，共同催化产能去化的明显提速。 ◼ 农产品：原油价格上行有望扭转农产品价格周期。地缘冲突推升原油价格，全球大宗商品供应链面临较 大不确定性，中国主要农产品价格已持续下跌三年，原油价格中枢上行后，将从生物燃料需求与农资成本端 共同支撑农产品价格，粮价周期有望反转。 ◼ 牧业：肉牛先行反转，涨势有望加速；原奶继续磨底，拐点渐近。在经历了前期产能深度去化后，肉牛 供给加速收缩的周期有望于2026年逐步开启（2025年来犊牛价格先行反转已验证了这一供给预期）；原奶 价格仍在磨底，待产能实 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group, "Buy-B" for Shennong Development and Wens Foodstuffs, and "Hold-A" for Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Shares [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the return of capacity reduction logic in the breeding sector, suggesting that the pig farming industry may face pressure in the first half of the year, but this period could also serve as a favorable window for capacity reduction [2][4]. - The report indicates that the overall pig price has decreased, leading to an expansion of losses in pig farming profits. As of March 13, the average price of external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan was 10.25, 10.96, and 10.13 yuan/kg, respectively, with an average pork price of 16.17 yuan/kg, down 4.99% from the previous week [3][24]. - The feed industry is experiencing a shift from product competition to value chain competition, with market share concentrating among leading companies with advantages in research and development, scale, and service [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - During the week of March 9 to March 15, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.19%, while the agriculture sector increased by 1.01%, ranking sixth among sectors. The top-performing sub-industries included grain and oil processing, food and feed additives, and pig farming [2][15]. 2. Pig Farming - The report notes a significant decline in pig farming profits, with self-breeding losses reaching -283.15 yuan per head, a decrease of approximately 45.17 yuan from the previous week. The profit from purchasing piglets was -118.18 yuan per head, down about 59.29 yuan [3][24]. 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens has slightly rebounded, with a weekly price of 7.21 yuan/kg, while the profit from raising meat chickens has decreased to 0.11 yuan per chicken, down 38.89% from the previous week [44]. 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs has increased to 3.38 yuan/kg, while the average price for chicken feed is 3.55 yuan/kg, both showing a week-on-week increase [49]. 5. Aquaculture - The report states that the price of sea cucumbers remains stable at 110 yuan/kg, while the price of shrimp is 280 yuan/kg. Freshwater fish prices, such as grass carp and crucian carp, have seen slight declines [56]. 6. Planting and Grain Processing - The report indicates a notable increase in grain prices, with corn at 2446.86 yuan/ton (+1.20%), soybeans at 4277.37 yuan/ton (+5.04%), and wheat at 2577.61 yuan/ton (+1.40%) [65].

近日，曲靖猪业已完成上述股权转让等相关事宜的变更登记手续，并取得曲 靖市麒麟区行政审批局出具的《登记通知书》，具体信息如下： 统一社会信用代码：91530302690883794A 名称：云南神农曲靖猪业有限公司 证券代码：605296 证券简称：神农集团 公告编号：2026-010 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 关于全资子公司股权转让进展暨完成变更登记的 公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 12 月 8 日召开了第五届董事会第六次会议，审议通过了《关于出售全资子公司股权的 议案》，同意公司将持有的全资子公司云南神农曲靖猪业有限公司(以下简称"曲 靖猪业")100%股权转让给罗娇，转让价款为人民币 761.68 万元。具体内容详见 公司于 2025 年 12 月 9 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）及指定信息 披露媒体上披露的《公司关于出售全资子公司股权的公告》（公告编号： 2025-136）。 住所：云南省曲靖市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural sector [11] Core Insights - Recent declines in pig prices, with the lowest recorded at 10.2 CNY/kg in mid-March, have led to over five months of industry losses. This situation is expected to accelerate the elimination of breeding sows, initiating a market-driven capacity reduction in pig farming [2][6] - The competitive landscape in the pig farming industry is anticipated to improve, favoring companies with cost advantages and strong cash flow, which are expected to enjoy prolonged profit cycles. Recommended companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group, DeKang Agriculture, and Shennong Group [2][7] - Geopolitical issues are driving up planting costs in major agricultural regions, which may lead to rising prices for major agricultural commodities such as soybeans, corn, and wheat. Recent increases in soybean meal prices indicate a significant uptick in market conditions [6][9] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 13, 2026, the average price of pigs is 10.28 CNY/kg, down 31% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month. The price of weaned piglets has also decreased, with 7 kg piglets priced at 326 CNY/head, a 32% year-on-year drop [19] - The industry has faced over five months of losses, with cash flow pressures becoming increasingly evident. The current oversupply of pigs and the seasonal decline in consumption are likely to keep prices at the bottom for March and April [7][19] - The report emphasizes that high-cost farming entities will be the first to exit the market, highlighting the core competitiveness of low-cost farming enterprises [2][7] Beef Farming - Beef prices have been on the rise since 2026, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.79 CNY/kg, up 8% year-on-year. The price of calves has surged by 40% year-on-year, indicating a robust market [8][35] - The report suggests that the current cycle of beef farming may last over two years due to tightening global beef supply and the implementation of import quotas by the end of 2025 [8][42] Other Agricultural Products - As of March 13, 2026, corn prices are at 2329 CNY/ton, up 6% year-on-year, while soybean meal prices are at 3474 CNY/ton, showing a 10% month-on-month increase. Wheat prices have also risen by 6% year-on-year [65] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to continue influencing agricultural prices, with potential disruptions in trade routes affecting supply chains [6][9]

担保对象及基本情况 | | 被担保人名称 | 广西崇左神农畜牧有限公司、文山 神农猪业发展有限公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本次担保金额 | 4,418.21 | 万元 | | | 担保对象 | 实际为其提供的担保余额 | 38,384.68 | | 万元[注 1] | | | 是否在前期预计额度内 | 是 | □否 | □不适用：_________ | | | 本次担保是否有反担保 | □是 | 否 | □不适用：_________ | 注 1：公司为合并报表范围内 2 家子公司在银行等金融机构的融资提供担保， 2026 年 2 月新增担保金额为 4,418.21 万元，截至 2026 年 2 月 28 日，公司为该 2 家子公司担保余额为 38,384.68 万元。 累计担保情况 | 对外担保逾期的累计金额（万元） | 30.72 | | --- | --- | | 截至本公告日上市公司及其控股 子公司对外担保总额（万元） | 106,516.28 | | 对外担保总额占上市公司最近一 期经审计净资产的比例（%） | 22.04 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction due to deepening losses, with the average loss per head for self-breeding and self-raising reaching approximately 283 CNY, up from 168 CNY [2] - The average price of live pigs has dropped to 10.1 CNY/kg, marking a new low since 2022, and the report anticipates that prices will continue to decline due to excess supply and increasing slaughter weights [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig farming sector's capacity reduction phase, which historically has shown strong performance during both the capacity reduction and price reversal stages of the pig cycle [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the industry is currently in a cash flow loss phase, with significant inventory pressure as slaughter weights increase from 126.1 kg to 128.6 kg [1] - The price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs has narrowed, indicating an oversupply of heavier pigs, which is expected to further pressure prices [1] Price Trends - The report notes that the price of piglets has decreased from 367 CNY to 326 CNY per head, approaching the cost line for breeding sows, which may accelerate capacity reduction as both pig and piglet prices enter a loss zone [2] - The report predicts that the pig price will remain under pressure in March and April, with most industry participants facing cash flow losses [1][2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, specifically highlighting stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Shennong Group as key investment opportunities [3][6] - Historical analysis shows that the pig farming sector tends to perform well during the capacity reduction phase, with stock prices often starting to rise when pig prices decline sharply [3]