Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-06 07:45Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a stable execution of long-term contracts for air conditioning companies in Q1 2026, with rising prices for mainstream refrigerants and a focus on the recovery of fluoropolymer prices due to cost support and supply-demand improvements [1][6]. Group 1: Refrigerant Prices - In Q1 2026, long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants are expected to continue rising, with R32 at 61,200 CNY/ton (up 1,000 CNY/ton, +1.66% from Q4 2025) and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton (up 1,900 CNY/ton, +3.57% from Q4 2025) [1]. - The expected price ranges for the upcoming week are approximately 62,000-63,000 CNY/ton for R32, 55,000-56,000 CNY/ton for R410A, and 56,000-57,000 CNY/ton for R134a [1]. Group 2: Production and Sales Data - In February 2026, total air conditioning production decreased by 31.6% year-on-year, significantly impacted by the timing of the Spring Festival [3]. - Domestic production in February 2026 was 4.555 million units (down 38.1% year-on-year), while export production was 6.93 million units (down 26.5% year-on-year) [3]. Group 3: Fluoropolymer Price Trends - The prices of fluoropolymers are on the rise due to ongoing cost increases and tight supply conditions, with PTFE prices ranging from 42,000 to 45,000 CNY/ton and PVDF prices for coating grade at 54,000-60,000 CNY/ton [4]. - The demand for fluoropolymers remains strong, with pre-holiday stockpiling intentions contributing to upward price pressure [4]. Group 4: Company Profit Forecasts - Companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) are expected to achieve a net profit of 3.54-3.94 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-101% [5]. - Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020) anticipates a net profit of 530-630 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 111%-151% [5]. - Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379) projects a net profit of 1.99-2.15 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 156%-176% [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance for mainstream refrigerants like R32, R134a, and R125, with long-term price increases anticipated [6][7]. - Companies with complete industrial chains, advanced technology, and leading refrigerant quotas are recommended for investment, including Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160), Dongyue Group (00189), and Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379) [8].