Raycloud(SH:688365) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-06 07:58Core Viewpoint - The prolonged losses of Guangyun Technology may reveal flaws in its business model, particularly due to reliance on e-commerce platforms, which may be showing signs of saturation, and the need to restructure its customer base, which could further pressure profitability [1][16]. Financial Performance - Guangyun Technology forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -32 million to -25 million yuan for 2025, indicating a reduction in losses by 50.0461 million to 57.0461 million yuan compared to the previous year, with a year-on-year loss reduction rate of 61.00% to 69.53% [17][21]. - The company has been in a continuous loss state for five years since 2021, with revenue not exceeding the peak level reached in that year [20][21]. Revenue and Profitability - Despite the losses, the company's gross margin exceeds 60%, rising to 70.31% in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][22]. - The company’s SaaS products primarily serve e-commerce merchants, providing various software and services, but has faced stagnant revenue since 2021 [2][18]. Business Model Challenges - Guangyun Technology operates under a platform-dependent model, which has not led to sustained profitability, as the company lacks pricing power within the e-commerce ecosystem dominated by platforms like Taobao and JD [9][25]. - The e-commerce sector is experiencing a peak in user engagement, with a reported active penetration rate of 95.6% as of October 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics and increased competition [10][26]. Customer Structure Issues - The customer base is structured like a pyramid, with a majority being small, uncertain startups that are price-sensitive, while the company primarily serves these lower-tier clients, limiting its revenue potential [12][28]. - The company has seen a slight increase of 1.66% in revenue from small and medium-sized merchant SaaS business in the first half of 2025 [28]. Product Development and Market Strategy - To better meet the operational needs of e-commerce merchants, the company has introduced new SaaS products tailored for larger merchants, which require significant upfront investment in marketing and channel development [29][32]. - The company is focusing on expanding its SaaS business into procurement and supply chain management, which is expected to provide new growth opportunities [32][33].