第一太平戴维斯：2026年中国房地产市场展望报告

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is in a deep reassessment phase, transitioning from a growth model based on scale and price increases to a structural transformation, with a focus on breaking the cycle of cost reduction and service decline [1][7] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026-2027 indicates a relatively stable growth trajectory, although the growth rate is expected to be lower than in 2025, with a "slow recovery" pattern emerging [1][9] - The industry is characterized by a "three-speed economy," where traditional sectors like real estate are in a slow adjustment lane, necessitating a redefinition of their roles to align with new development orders [1][14] Market Segmentation - The office market is shifting towards quality and efficiency, adopting a "less is more" strategy, focusing on multifunctional spaces and optimizing value through stock renovation and intensive management [2][18] - The retail market shows stable overall data but increasing differentiation among segments, with traditional core business districts losing their advantages, while regional projects and unique operators are rising [2][26] - The logistics market is closely tied to the real economy, with high-quality assets demonstrating resilience, and the industry is transitioning towards "quality asset holding + refined operations" [2][33] - The residential market is stabilizing at low levels, with sales steady but confidence fragile, emphasizing quality delivery and livability as key competitive factors [2][40] Investment Market Outlook - The investment market is likely to remain sluggish in 2026, but structural opportunities are emerging, with a preference for high-quality assets with stable cash flows [2][48] - The financialization of the industry is accelerating, with an increase in public REITs and holding-type ABS issuance, pushing the industry towards a "hold and operate" model [2][56] - Long-term capital is gradually entering the market, with a shift in valuation systems rewarding discipline and operational capability, making transparent pricing and precise positioning crucial for asset differentiation [2][53] Key Opportunities - The core opportunity for the real estate industry in 2026 lies in aligning with economic transformation and reshaping asset value logic, focusing on quality upgrades, operational optimization, and innovative models [3][8] - Each segment must return to its essence: offices focusing on collaboration efficiency, retail enhancing emotional connections, logistics adapting to supply chain upgrades, and residential emphasizing livability [3][40]