Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2026-02-06 08:33Core Viewpoint - The global data center expansion is driving significant demand for gas turbines, with the U.S. AI data centers expected to require an additional 31GW of power over the next five years [1][2]. Demand Side - The global data center electricity consumption is projected to increase from 415TWh in 2024 to 945TWh by 2030, with the U.S. accounting for 45% of this demand [2]. - Gas turbines are favored for AI data center power supply due to their quick startup, easy deployment, stable generation, energy efficiency, low maintenance, and cost-effectiveness [2]. Market Size - The global gas turbine installed capacity is expected to stabilize at over 100GW from 2026 to 2035, representing a 64% increase from 61GW in 2022 [3]. - The U.S., Middle East, Europe, and other regions are projected to add 250GW, 50GW, 40GW, and 85GW of gas turbine capacity, respectively, over the next five years [3]. Main Engine Orders - Starting in 2024, global gas turbine OEM orders are anticipated to grow rapidly, with 2025 expected to set a new record for order intake [4]. - Major players in the gas turbine market include GEV (34% market share), Siemens Energy (27%), and Mitsubishi (24%) [4]. - GEV expects to sign 24GW of contracts in Q4 2025, with a total backlog of 83GW [4]. - Siemens Energy forecasts a 63% increase in new gas orders to 26GW for the 2025 fiscal year, with data center demand accounting for about 25% [4]. - Mitsubishi Heavy Industries anticipates orders for gas turbine units to reach 2.1 trillion yen in the 2025 fiscal year, a 42% increase [4]. Main Engine Capacity Expansion - Siemens plans to increase its production capacity from 17GW in 2024 to 30GW by 2028-2030 [5]. - GEV aims to enhance its capacity by 20% from 2026 to 2028, reaching 24GW [5]. - Mitsubishi Heavy Industries plans to double its gas turbine production capacity over the next two years [5]. Aftermarket - There is a mismatch between global gas turbine installed capacity and sales, with the North American demand accounting for over 20% of the global market [5]. - The average service life of gas turbines has reached 19.7 years, indicating significant aftermarket opportunities for repairs and replacements [5]. Supply Side - The overall capacity in the gas turbine supply chain is tight, with domestic suppliers expected to increase their global market share [6]. - The blade component holds the largest value share in gas turbines, accounting for 35% of the total value [6]. Overseas Component Supply - Howmet, a major supplier of turbine blades, has seen a decline in fixed assets since its spin-off in 2020, but is expected to gradually recover starting in 2024 [7]. - Domestic suppliers are positioned to benefit from the expanding gas turbine market, providing new growth opportunities [7]. Investment Targets - Companies to watch for potential growth in global market share include Longda Co. (high-temperature alloys), Yingliu Co. (blades), and others in various component categories [8].