警告！1.7亿吨铁矿石，正“绑架”中国钢厂

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a rare "reverse game" as prices remain high while inventory levels reach record highs, creating a complex dynamic between supply and demand [1][2][3]. Price and Inventory Dynamics - As of February 5, 2026, the price of 62% Australian iron ore is at $102.70 per ton, showing no significant decline despite high inventory levels [1]. - National inventory at 45 major ports reached 170.22 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.56 million tons, marking a near two-year high [2]. - Trade merchants are reluctant to sell despite high inventory, while steel mills are cautious in their purchasing, leading to a challenging balance in the market [3][4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The accumulation of inventory is attributed to stable supply from major global mines and seasonal demand slowdown as steel mills prepare for maintenance ahead of the Spring Festival [5][6]. - The average daily unloading volume at 45 ports decreased significantly to 2.69 million tons, indicating a slowdown in demand from steel mills [4]. Market Behavior and Strategies - Port operators are adopting cautious and refined strategies to manage high inventory levels, focusing on optimizing storage and improving turnover efficiency [7][9]. - The price pressure from high inventory is not linear, with a complex interplay between buyers' strong bargaining power and sellers' reluctance to sell at lower prices [10][15]. Procurement Strategies of Steel Mills - Steel mills are emphasizing risk management in their procurement processes, utilizing long-term contracts and futures to stabilize costs [12][13]. - The trend towards refined procurement practices is becoming common, with mills favoring lower-cost materials and being cautious with high-priced mainstream ores [14]. Emerging Risks and Market Outlook - The iron ore market faces long-term risks of supply-demand imbalance, with expectations of increased global supply in the latter half of 2026 [16]. - Steel mills are sensitive to profit margins and may reduce production if material sales are sluggish, impacting iron ore demand [17]. - The market is evolving towards a more strategic approach, with participants focusing on risk management and financial tools to navigate price volatility [19][20].