第三次锂超期周期！瑞银：全面上调锂价预测，到2030年需求有望翻番

Core Viewpoint - UBS has significantly raised its lithium price forecasts, with increases up to 74%, and expects global lithium demand to double to 3.4 million tons by 2030 compared to 2025, marking the onset of a third lithium price supercycle [1]. Demand Side: Dual Drivers of Electric Vehicles and Energy Storage - UBS predicts a 14% increase in global lithium demand in 2026 and a 16% increase in 2027, with long-term demand expected to grow from 1.7 million tons in 2025 to 3.4 million tons by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13% before 2035 [2]. - Electric vehicle (EV) demand is projected to accelerate mid-term, with a forecasted global EV penetration rate of 58% by 2035, up from 23% in 2025 [2]. - The demand for energy storage systems is expected to surge, with UBS raising its 2026-2035 energy storage demand forecast by 30-53%, increasing its share of lithium consumption from 8% in 2020 to 42% by 2035 [2]. Supply Response: Growth but Still Insufficient to Meet Demand - Supply is responding but is lagging behind demand growth, with a projected 18% increase in primary supply in 2025, which is still below the 26% demand growth [5]. - UBS anticipates a 20% year-on-year increase in risk-weighted supply in 2027, with a 13% increase in 2028, but the market will remain tight due to strong demand growth [5]. - Recycled lithium supply is expected to account for 5.3% of battery demand by 2026, increasing to 6.7% by 2030, but remains limited [5]. Price Outlook: Significant Increases Yet Within Historical Ranges - UBS has raised its lithium spodumene and chemical price forecasts by up to 74%, with a 2026 spodumene price forecast of $3,131 per ton, significantly above market consensus [9]. - The 2027 price forecast indicates continued strength, with spodumene at $3,469 per ton and lithium carbonate and hydroxide at $28,525 per ton, reflecting UBS's aggressive stance on supply-demand dynamics [9]. - Long-term price forecasts are more moderate, with spodumene prices expected to decline from $2,750 per ton in 2028 to $1,750 per ton by 2030 [9]. Market Balance: Shortage Situation Supporting Prices - The market is experiencing increasing supply shortages, with a projected shortfall of approximately 15,000 tons in 2025 and 18,000 tons in 2026, which will support high prices [13]. - Inventory data shows a continuous decline in China's lithium carbonate inventory, indicating a tightening supply chain [13]. - A potential market surplus of about 61,000 tons is expected in 2027, but shortages are anticipated to return in 2029 and 2030, with deficits of 63,000 tons and 87,000 tons, respectively [13].