特朗普下令启动“金库计划”，就靠这个对中国反败为胜？

Core Viewpoint - The "Treasury Plan" initiated by Trump aims to establish a strategic defense for the U.S. against potential global conflicts, particularly reducing dependence on Chinese rare earths and other critical metals, with a total scale of $12 billion [1][3]. Group 1: Plan Overview - The plan combines private capital and bank loans to procure and store rare earth minerals, ensuring the U.S. does not rely on China in emergencies [3]. - The core objective is to maintain a 60-day reserve of critical minerals to sustain manufacturing during extreme situations, allowing U.S. companies to continue production despite global supply chain disruptions [3][8]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The plan reflects a significant shift in U.S. strategy towards China, moving beyond tariffs to building resource-based defenses, indicating a more serious and long-term approach to U.S.-China relations [9]. - The U.S. government has been actively seeking alternative sources for rare earths since China tightened export controls, collaborating with countries like Australia, Japan, and Malaysia to establish an independent supply chain [4]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Participating companies in the plan must bear price risks and procurement responsibilities, potentially leading to a "price gamble" where they are locked into purchasing at fixed prices regardless of market fluctuations [6]. - The complexity of the rare earth supply chain means that even with reserves, the U.S. may still rely on China for processing, as it lacks sufficient domestic capabilities to refine these materials [8]. - The establishment of a complete domestic separation system for rare earths could take 5 to 10 years, raising concerns about the U.S. manufacturing sector's vulnerability during this transition [8].