芦哲、王洋（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事）

Core Viewpoints - Silver futures have ended their limit down, indicating that the current liquidity shock is largely over. Since November 2025, silver has become a leading indicator of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, alongside gold and copper, activating a rotation sequence in commodities [2][12] - The recent decline in silver futures has triggered a liquidity risk contagion in the commodity market, leading to widespread sell-offs in related sectors. The opening of the limit down on February 3rd suggests a relief in market risks [2][12] Market Events - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver futures opened limit down, closing at 21,446 CNY/kg, a decline of 16.71%. The London silver spot price was 79.2 USD/oz, with the SHFE silver futures premium dropping from 29.8% at the end of January to 7.46% by February 3 [1][11] - On February 4, the SHFE silver main contract night session rose by 5.93%, closing at 22,393 CNY/kg [1][11] Volatility Analysis - The implied volatility of silver futures remains high, with a peak of 148% on February 2, indicating that while the limit down has been lifted, the market still needs to stabilize from liquidity risks. Gold futures also show elevated volatility, suggesting that both metals require time to fully absorb the liquidity shock [3][13] Commodity Market Dynamics - The core logic of the commodity market remains unchanged despite liquidity shocks. Some commodities, which were mispriced due to liquidity risks, may return to their fundamental pricing logic as the market stabilizes. The 2026 asset allocation report highlights three main lines for the commodity market post-liquidity shock [4][14] - Precious metals are expected to enter a consolidation phase after a period of broad increases, supported by long-term narratives such as the weakening of global sovereign currency credit and the "de-dollarization" trend [4][17] Non-Ferrous Metals - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from structural changes in demand driven by new economic sectors such as AI and renewable energy. Despite recent adjustments due to liquidity shocks, the fundamental pricing mechanisms for these metals remain robust [5][18] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in market conditions, driven by supply-side adjustments and structural changes in demand. The sector is becoming a key area for capital inflows, despite recent declines linked to precious metals [6][19] New Energy Metals - New energy metals, particularly lithium carbonate, are expected to gradually move towards supply-demand balance, supported by policy adjustments and demand growth. The sector remains a focal point for bullish investment opportunities [7][20]