软件股大跌，是耐心持有还是逢低买入？

Core Viewpoint - The software sector is undergoing a severe sell-off, driven by a deep reassessment of the industry's future rather than mere market sentiment fluctuations. The acceleration of AI technology is fundamentally disrupting traditional SaaS business models, leading to a significant increase in the "terminal value" risk for SaaS and application software stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - UBS highlights that investors should avoid rushing to buy into software stocks, particularly those based on "seat" pricing, as they are in the eye of the AI disruption storm [1]. - The average organic revenue growth rate for large SaaS and application software companies has dropped to around 12-13%, down from the pre-pandemic growth rates of 15-20% [4]. - Companies like Salesforce and Adobe have seen their growth rates decline sharply, with Salesforce dropping from 20% to 9% and Adobe from 21% to 10% [4]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Many software stocks are still using "non-GAAP" price-to-earnings ratios to support their valuations, which obscures the impact of substantial stock-based compensation (SBC) on their financials [5]. - When viewed from a stricter GAAP perspective, many companies' profitability appears significantly diminished, with most still facing high non-cash equity incentive costs [6]. Group 3: AI Revenue Insights - Despite the hype around AI, public application software companies have reported only $5.6 billion in total AI revenue, with Microsoft contributing approximately $3.8 billion, leaving only about $2 billion for the rest of the industry [7]. - The AI spending is not fully flowing to traditional SaaS giants but is being diverted to AI-native startups and model providers like OpenAI and Anthropic [7]. Group 4: Seat Compression Risks - AI poses a direct threat to the SaaS model through "seat compression," as companies are reducing the number of low-skilled employees while increasing investments in AI functionalities [8]. - Some companies report that while the number of seats may decrease, the total amount paid to software vendors could still rise due to increased spending on AI capabilities [8]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - UBS advises against seeking winners in the SaaS application software space for now, suggesting a focus on infrastructure and data, with companies like Microsoft, Snowflake, and Datadog being preferred due to their healthier customer spending trends and lower disruption risks [9]. - In the cybersecurity sector, companies like Okta and Zscaler are recommended for their attractive valuations and stable demand amid AI-related security threats [9]. - Companies utilizing usage-based pricing models, such as Twilio and Braze, as well as those transitioning to the cloud like Autodesk, are also seen as relatively safe investments [9].