2.28万套、涨幅24%！上海二手房迎5年来最强1月

Market Overview - The Shanghai secondary housing market has shown unexpected resilience during the off-peak season, with January transactions reaching a five-year high of 22,834 units, a 24.18% increase year-on-year compared to January 2025 [2][3] - The number of listings has dropped below 150,000 for the first time, indicating a faster absorption rate of new listings than the market can supply [3][4] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has significantly improved since October 2025, leading to increased trading activity as buyers are encouraged to enter the market [3] - The decline in listings suggests that the market is stabilizing, with a potential for price stabilization as well [3][4] Transaction Dynamics - The average daily transactions in January were 652.5 units in the first half and 805.82 units in the second half, indicating a robust trading environment [2] - The structure of transactions remains dominated by first-time buyers, with properties priced below 3 million yuan gaining a larger market share [4][5] Price Trends - The transaction prices have shown signs of stabilizing, with a halt in the downward trend observed over the past two months [4] - The negotiation margins have narrowed, with the average discount decreasing from -4.46% in January 2025 to -3.73% [4] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the "small spring" in the market will continue into March and April, with sustained trading volumes expected [3][4] - The Shanghai government has initiated a program to purchase second-hand homes for affordable rental housing, which is anticipated to enhance market liquidity and stimulate demand [5] New Housing Market - In contrast to the secondary market, the new housing market in Shanghai has remained relatively quiet, with January transactions dropping by 38.6% to 287,000 square meters [5][6] - The supply of new homes has decreased significantly, with only 26,300 square meters available in January, reflecting a lack of confidence among developers [7]