警告，1.7亿吨铁矿石，正“绑架”中国钢厂

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a rare "reverse game" as prices remain high despite record inventory levels, leading to a complex interplay between supply, demand, and market psychology [1][2][9]. Inventory Situation - As of February 5, 2026, iron ore inventory at 45 major ports in China reached 170.22 million tons, with a significant increase of 2.56 million tons in just one week [1][2]. - The high inventory levels are attributed to stable supply from major global mines and a seasonal slowdown in demand as steel mills prepare for the upcoming Chinese New Year [4][5]. Price Dynamics - The price of 62% Australian iron ore remained at $102.70 per ton, with a slight decline in the spot market reflecting weak demand from steel mills [1][3]. - The market is characterized by a standoff where buyers are reluctant to purchase at high prices due to inventory concerns, while sellers, particularly those with higher-cost inventory, are hesitant to sell at lower prices [9][10]. Steel Mills' Strategies - Steel mills are adopting cautious procurement strategies, balancing the need to maintain production with the risk of inventory devaluation due to potential price drops [10][11]. - The use of long-term contracts and futures as risk management tools is becoming more prevalent among steel mills to stabilize costs and manage price volatility [11][12]. Market Outlook - The interplay between high inventory levels and cautious purchasing behavior from steel mills is expected to create a complex market environment leading into the post-holiday period [19][20]. - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term support for prices due to steel mill restocking, the overall market will face downward pressure from increased supply later in the year [15][19].