Solid Equity, Options Trading to Aid HOOD Q4 Earnings Amid Crypto Slump

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets' transaction-based revenues are expected to show decent performance in Q4 2025, with a significant portion of total net revenues coming from these transactions [1][4]. Revenue Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Robinhood's transaction-based revenues is $809.9 million, reflecting a 20.5% increase year-over-year [4]. - Options transaction revenues are estimated at $315.3 million, indicating a growth of 42% [5]. - Equity transaction revenues are projected to rise by 42.3% to $86.8 million, while cryptocurrency transaction revenues are expected to decline by 19.8% to $287.1 million [5]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is 62 cents, representing a 14.8% increase from the previous year [6]. - Total sales are expected to reach $1.32 billion, marking a 30.5% year-over-year rise [6]. Market Context - Trading volumes and client activity remained strong in Q4, supported by a risk-on sentiment in global markets, despite challenges such as the U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical issues [2]. - Unlike previous quarters, equities and fixed income showed steady trading momentum, while crypto trading remained muted due to volatility [3]. Competitive Landscape - Interactive Brokers reported adjusted earnings of 65 cents per share, exceeding estimates and reflecting a 27.5% year-over-year increase, driven by revenue growth and reduced expenses [9]. - Charles Schwab's adjusted earnings of $1.39 per share also surpassed estimates, with a 38% year-over-year increase, supported by strong asset management performance and increased trading revenues [10]. Operational Insights - Robinhood is expected to see higher interest revenues due to an increase in interest-earning assets and securities lending activity, despite interest rate cuts [13]. - Operating expenses are anticipated to remain elevated due to ongoing investments in platform upgrades, product innovation, and regulatory compliance [14]. Stock Performance - Robinhood's shares have experienced significant growth, soaring 203.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 37% and its peers [15].