Amazon stock falls on disappointing outlook, why the software sell-off feels 'much worse'

Market Overview - Stocks are showing signs of gains to close out a volatile week, with Wall Street experiencing its worst selloff in months due to AI concerns leading to a rotation out of tech [1] - Nearly $1 trillion in market value was wiped out by the software selloff, affecting major companies in the sector [4] - The State Street Technology ETF is on track for its worst week since April, while the IGV ETF tracking software is having its worst week since 2008, down about 12% [2][10] Company-Specific Insights - Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in AI this year, primarily for its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud unit, which CEO Andy Jassy describes as an "extraordinarily unusual opportunity" [2][24] - Amazon's revenue outlook fell below Wall Street expectations, contributing to a decline in its stock price amid fears of AI disruption [24] - The growth rate for AWS has increased from mid-teens to nearly mid-20% over the last three quarters, indicating a positive return on investment in that segment [29] Industry Trends - Concerns over AI disruption have led to significant pressure on software companies like ServiceNow, Salesforce, and Microsoft, with investors questioning which businesses will be affected and to what extent [5][6][12] - The broader tech market is not far from all-time highs, but there has been considerable damage to high beta momentum stocks, which have seen a reversal in performance [8][9] - Investors are becoming more discerning about future returns, especially as companies transition from capital-light to more capital-intensive operations [16] Economic Indicators - Manufacturing activity has expanded at the fastest pace in over three years, suggesting a potential turn in the industrial cycle after a prolonged period of stagnation [19] - The dollar has fallen about 9% in the last year, with investors shifting risk hedging strategies away from the US, indicating a change in how risk is perceived [50][51]