UPST Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) is expected to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 10, with anticipated growth in revenues and earnings per share [1][7] - The company has a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates, having done so in the last four quarters [2] Financial Performance Expectations - Management has guided for Q4 revenues of approximately $288 million, reflecting sequential growth despite typical holiday seasonality [3] - Fee revenues are projected to be around $262 million, with net interest income expected at about $26 million [3] - For Q4, adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be approximately $63 million, with GAAP net income around $17 million and adjusted net income near $52 million [3] Profitability Metrics - Contribution margin is expected to moderate to about 53%, indicating a shift towards optimizing customer lifetime value rather than maximizing short-term margins [4] Funding and Growth Potential - Upstart has secured a $1.5 billion forward-flow agreement with Castlelake, enhancing its lending capacity and reducing balance sheet exposure [5] - The company is also seeing growth in newer verticals such as auto and home loans, which are becoming significant contributors to overall volume and revenues [5] Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 revenues is set at $288.47 million, representing a 31.74% increase year-over-year [6] - For the full year 2025, total revenues are projected to be about $1.035 billion, with fee revenues of roughly $946 million and net interest income of approximately $89 million [8] Earnings Projections - The consensus estimate for full-year EPS stands at $1.68, indicating a significant increase from a loss of 20 cents in the previous year [9]