双碳研究 | 伍德麦肯兹报告：亚太电力市场步入关键的2026年

Core Insights - The Wood Mackenzie report indicates that the Asia-Pacific region will account for 85% of global electricity demand growth by 2026, with an expected increase of approximately 790 terawatt-hours (TWh) in electricity consumption [3][4] - Data centers are identified as the primary driver of transformative demand growth in the region, reversing a decade-long decline in energy demand in markets like Japan [3][4] Group 1: Electricity Demand Growth - By 2026, global electricity demand is projected to increase by 920 TWh, with the majority of this growth originating from the Asia-Pacific region [4] - China, as the largest electricity market, continues to expand, with its market size being twice that of the combined total of the U.S., Europe, and other Asia-Pacific regions [4] - India is expected to contribute approximately 50% of regional demand growth, followed by Southeast Asia at 25% [4] Group 2: Renewable Energy Policy Adjustments - The two major renewable energy markets in the Asia-Pacific are entering a "policy platform period," with China's solar and wind capacity expected to decline to 318 gigawatts (GW) in 2026, marking a potential first decrease in a decade [5] - In India, while record new capacity was added in 2025, the government is now focusing on addressing transmission congestion and project execution risks, leading to a slowdown in bidding activities [5] Group 3: Corporate Power Purchase Agreements - Corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs) are becoming a structural shift in the Asia-Pacific region, transitioning from a non-mainstream model to a dominant one due to decreasing costs and improved regulatory frameworks [6] - In China, the cost of "wind + storage" hybrid systems is approximately one-third of utility electricity prices, while similar models in Japan and Taiwan are about 30% cheaper than grid prices [6] Group 4: Gas Turbine Supply Chain Constraints - Supply chain constraints in the traditional power generation sector are emerging as significant risk factors, with global delivery times for heavy gas turbines extending to five to eight years [7] - If orders are not placed this year, achieving decarbonization targets by 2030 may become challenging, particularly in Southeast Asia where natural gas is seen as a key transitional fuel from coal [7] Group 5: Low-Carbon Fuel Viability - The year 2026 will serve as a critical test for the economic viability of low-carbon fuels in land-constrained markets like Singapore, Japan, and South Korea [8] - Despite substantial policy support, including Japan's $20 billion hydrogen price difference contract plan, the costs of green hydrogen and ammonia co-firing are expected to remain significantly higher than liquefied natural gas [8] Group 6: Transition from Growth to Complexity - The report compares 2026 with 2025, noting that the Asia-Pacific region added approximately 600 TWh of electricity demand and nearly 500 GW of wind and solar capacity in 2025 [9] - Trade barriers, including tariffs, and increasing supply chain constraints are introducing new uncertainties to economic growth and energy transition plans [9]