蒙特利尔银行：若沃什领导美联储可借鉴英央行四年缩表近半经验平稳缩表

Core Viewpoint - The Montreal Bank's strategy team suggests that if Kevin Warsh leads the Federal Reserve, it could follow the Bank of England's past experience in reducing its balance sheet without causing significant market disruptions, provided there is adequate liquidity support in place [1]. Group 1 - Laurence Mutkin, the EMEA interest rate strategy head, noted that the Bank of England successfully reduced its bond portfolio by nearly half over four years without causing notable market disturbances, primarily due to a robust liquidity support system [1]. - The Bank of England implemented two targeted tools: a weekly short-term repurchase agreement (STR) allowing banks to borrow central bank reserves against high-quality collateral like UK government bonds, and a weekly indexed long-term repurchase agreement (ILTR) enabling financial institutions to borrow six-month central bank reserves against eligible collateral [1]. - Mutkin emphasized that clear communication regarding the applicability of liquidity tools, including market consultation, can effectively mitigate potential risks during the balance sheet reduction process [1]. Group 2 - Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump as a candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, has consistently expressed a desire to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [1]. - The Federal Reserve previously paused its balance sheet reduction process twice, in 2019 and 2025 [1].