Qualcomm: A tough start to 2026 in prospect after Q4 earnings beat

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm Inc exceeded consensus forecasts on revenue and adjusted earnings per share, but the market reacted negatively due to guidance indicating a weaker upcoming quarter [1] Financial Performance - Qualcomm's outlook for the current quarter fell significantly short of expectations, with revenue and earnings forecasts missing consensus by a wide margin [2] - The company generated $7.82 billion in revenue from handsets, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [5] Supply Chain Issues - A global shortage of memory chips is constraining smartphone production across the industry, impacting Qualcomm's customers who rely on separate memory sourcing [2][3] - Chief executive Cristiano Amon stated that memory supply is now defining the size of the mobile market [3] - Qualcomm is not losing market share or facing weak end markets; rather, it is limited by a bottleneck in the supply chain [4] Market Dynamics - Disruptions in the handset ecosystem directly affect Qualcomm's earnings outlook, as the company has limited ability to mitigate these shocks through pricing or inventory control [6] - Management suggested that manufacturers might focus on higher-end devices, which could support margins but imply lower overall volumes [7] Demand Perspective - Qualcomm is not indicating a collapse in smartphone demand; instead, there is an ongoing upgrade cycle and healthy consumer interest [8] - A supply problem suggests deferred sales rather than destroyed sales, which is crucial for long-term investors [8] Diversification Efforts - Qualcomm's strategy is progressing slowly but positively, with the internet of things business growing by 9% and the automotive division expanding by 15% [10][12]