内容摘要 ▍▍ 正文 ▍▍ ▍复盘10月走势，受关税政策影响较大 10月1日至今，美国共和、民主两党未能就临时拔款法案达到一致，联邦政府仍在停摆。历史上联邦政府曾停摆数次，市场已具备丰富经验，此次市场预 计联邦政府停摆将对GDP增长产生轻微负面影响，股市对此反应平淡，停摆初期标普500在不断创历史新高。 10月10日，特朗普总统在社交媒体宣布将对中国加征100%关税，引发市场对中美经贸摩擦再次升级的担忧，标普500暴跌2.71%，创对等关税以来最大单 日跌幅。之后数日特朗普总统、万斯副总统及财政部长贝森特相继释放缓和信息，无意与中国脱钩断链，TACO交易再现；中旬大盘在反弹后进入横盘振 荡格局。 10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔在费城国家商业经济协会表示，金融体系流动性状况正逐步趋紧，量化紧缩(QT)计划即将接近尾声。 主要事件：10月美股市场按时间先后顺序主要经历了联邦政府关门、特朗普总统突然在社交媒体宣布对中国加征100%关税、美国两家区域银行披露 信贷风险、中美贸易代表在吉隆坡谈判进展顺利、鲍威尔主席记者会表示12月不确定降息、中美两国元首韩国会晤，对美股影响最大的是中美贸易 政策的变化。 12月降息存变 ...

AI浪潮的汹涌席卷，让原本以周期波动著称的存储市场，进入前所未有的"超级繁荣周期"。在AI大模型训练和推理的双重驱动下，算力需求暴增，HBM 成为AI服务器的关键组件。它通过堆叠多层DRAM，与GPU紧密结合，为AI计算提供更快的数据通道，成为AI时代最炙手可热的"黄金存储"。 而HBM的火热也带动了整个存储产业链的升温。三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技等全球三大存储巨头，纷纷迎来业绩爆发。三星第三季度净利润同比增 长21%，SK海力士创下公司史上最高季度利润，美光则实现净利同比增长三倍。SK海力士也表示，其2025年前的HBM产能已被客户预订一空。 与此同时，传统DRAM和NAND芯片也正意外走俏。 由于存储厂集中扩产HBM，常规内存产能趋紧，市场供需出现再平衡。亚马逊、谷歌、Meta等数据中心巨头，为了扩充AI推理与云服务能力，正大规模 采购传统DRAM。事实上，在AI推理阶段，普通内存依然发挥着不可替代的作用——这让整个存储市场呈现"全线紧俏"的局面。 LPDDR5的爆火 先一步爆火的，是所有智能手机几乎都会用到的LPDDR。 近日，高通发布了全新的AI200和AI250数据中心加速器，预计将于2026年 ...

Market News - China's October CPI and PPI data will be released on November 9, with a forecasted CPI year-on-year increase to 0.6% and a narrowing PPI decline from -2.8% in September to -2.2% in October [2] - China's October import and export data will be published on November 7, with exports expected to rise by 4.9% year-on-year and imports by 1.2% [3] - The U.S. will release the ADP employment report on November 5, with expectations of a modest increase in non-farm employment and a potential rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [4] - The Q3 earnings season continues this week with major companies like AMD and Qualcomm reporting, with AMD's growth driven by strong performance in data center and client segments [5] Sector Updates - The 2025 xEV Battery Technology Forum and Solid-State Battery Technology Industry Conference will be held in Shanghai from November 3 to 4, focusing on lithium batteries and solid-state battery mass production [9] - A notification to improve duty-free shop policies was issued to boost consumption, effective from November 1, 2025 [10] - The 8th China International Import Expo will take place from November 5 to 10, with a record exhibition area and participation from over 290 Fortune 500 companies [11] - The CEIC 2025 Consumer Electronics Innovation Conference will be held in Shenzhen from November 6 to 8, showcasing innovations in smart devices and technologies [12] - The 2025 World Internet Conference will be held in Wuzhen from November 6 to 9, focusing on building a collaborative digital future [13] Company Highlights - Seres is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 5, with an IPO price of up to HKD 131.5 per share, aiming to raise approximately HKD 12.9 billion [15] - BYD reported October sales of 441,700 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year decrease from 502,700 units [16] - Great Wall Motors announced October sales of 143,100 vehicles, a 22.5% year-on-year increase [17] - Chery Group reported October sales of 281,161 vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales up 54.7% year-on-year [18] - NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October, marking a 92.6% year-on-year increase [19] - Li Auto delivered 31,767 vehicles in October, with plans to expand its overseas market presence [19] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 30 companies will have lock-up shares released this week, amounting to 1.028 billion shares with a total market value of approximately CNY 20.322 billion [22] - The peak lock-up expiration date is November 7, with six companies accounting for 62.69% of the total market value [22] New Stock Calendar - Three new stocks are set to be issued this week, totaling approximately 573 million shares and expected to raise CNY 3.947 billion [26] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities suggests that structural opportunities remain, with a focus on traditional manufacturing upgrades, Chinese enterprises going global, and AI developments [29] - CITIC Jiantou anticipates a new round of market consolidation in November, advising investors to pause on increasing positions [31] - Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of technology and industry integration, highlighting the government's focus on a modern industrial system [32]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia holds a dominant position in the artificial intelligence accelerator market, with estimates suggesting its market share could be as high as 90% [1]. However, Qualcomm's entry into the AI chip market with new processors may disrupt Nvidia's dominance, as competitors like AMD are also making strides [5][7]. Group 1: Qualcomm's Market Entry - Qualcomm is entering the AI data center market with new processors designed for high performance and efficiency, which could challenge Nvidia's stronghold [5][6]. - The AI200 and AI250 chip-based accelerator cards are expected to enhance memory capacity and performance, indicating Qualcomm's serious commitment to this sector [2][4]. - Qualcomm's stock saw an increase of over 11% following the announcement of its new AI processors, reflecting positive market sentiment [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The AI chip market is experiencing significant growth, with a forecasted annual growth rate of 15%, expanding from approximately $16 billion to over $60 billion by 2034 [4]. - AMD has successfully introduced its MI325X chip, which competes with Nvidia's offerings, resulting in a 14% year-over-year increase in AMD's data center revenue to $3.2 billion [7]. - Major cloud service providers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are increasingly developing their own custom chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia's products [9][10]. Group 3: Implications for Nvidia - Nvidia's leadership in the AI semiconductor market is being challenged as alternatives emerge, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [10][11]. - The competitive landscape suggests that Nvidia's premium stock pricing, which has been supported by its market dominance, may face pressure as competitors gain traction [15]. - Despite the challenges, Nvidia may still benefit from the overall growth in the AI hardware market, even if it loses some market share [13].

2025 年 11 月 02 日 固定收益 | 固定收益点评 美债收益率大幅上行 证券研究报告 海外跟踪周报 20251102 海外市场复盘（10.27-10.31） 海外权益，美股震荡收涨。周一，外交部长王毅同美国务卿鲁比奥通电话， 以及上周末中美代表团举行经贸磋商，提振市场情绪，美股三大指数均创 新高，高通进军 AI，令芯片股价大涨。周二，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋在 GTC 2025 上淡化对 AI 泡沫的担忧，美股继续上涨。周三，FOMC 发布会鲍威尔表态 偏鹰，重创风险资产，美股在周三四回调。周五，亚马逊宣布云计算部门 季度营收大增，提振 AI 相关股票，美股三大指数收涨。 本周美元上涨。周三，FOMC 发布会鲍威尔表态偏鹰，强调 12 月降息远非 板上钉钉，支撑美元上行。 美债收益率显著上行。FOMC 虽如期降息，但鲍威尔强调美联储尚未就 12 月会议作出决定，委员会对 12 月如何行动存在严重分歧，越来越多的官员 希望推迟降息。周五，博斯蒂克、洛根、哈玛克、施密德四位美联储官员 表达对过度降息的担忧，令 12 月降息预期进一步下降。 本周黄金延续下跌、原油回落。本周一，菲律宾央行官员表示出售黄金， ...

2025 年 11 月 02 日 电子 三星与英伟达共建人工智能工厂，高通 入局 AI 芯片市场 三星与英伟达达成合作，共建 AI 工厂＆联合开发 HBM4 据新浪财经 10 月 31 日新闻，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋访韩期间，三星半导 体宣布与英伟达达成两项关键合作：共同建设"AI 工厂"，并联合开发 下一代 HBM4 内存。AI 工厂将整合芯片设计、制造、设备与运营全环 节，构建统一智能平台，通过 AI 实时优化生产流程，实现智能制造 升级。双方将借助 NVIDIA Omniverse 平台推进数字孪生技术，覆盖 芯片制造全体系。在 HBM4 开发方面，三星将采用其第六代 10 纳米级 DRAM 与 4 纳米逻辑芯片，目标速度为每秒 1TBps，超越当前 JEDEC 标 准。双方还计划将 AI 工厂模式扩展至全球制造中心，构建融合 AI 与 机器人的智能制造生态。 高通发布人工智能芯片，进军数据中心 AI 市场 据第一财经 10 月 27 日新闻，高通宣布推出人工智能芯片 A1200 和 A1250，正式进军数据中心 AI 市场。该芯片基于类图形处理单元架构 的解决方案，采用神经处理单元（NPU）技术，每卡 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm's stock surged 11% on October 27 following the announcement of its AI accelerators, indicating renewed investor interest despite competition from major players like Nvidia and AMD [1][2]. Qualcomm and Its Stock - Qualcomm has faced significant struggles among semiconductor stocks, maintaining its position as the leading producer of smartphone chipsets for decades [2]. - The current upgrade cycle for AI-enabled phones has not matched the robustness of previous cycles, and Apple is expected to drop Qualcomm as a chipset provider, impacting revenue [3]. Financial Performance - Qualcomm's net income reached nearly $8.7 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2025, reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 17, significantly lower than the S&P 500 average of 32, suggesting a potential undervaluation [4][12]. Market Opportunities - Qualcomm is diversifying beyond smartphone chipsets, with the Internet of Things (IoT) and automotive segments growing faster than the handset segment, contributing to 23% of its revenue [6]. - The AI chip market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% through 2030, highlighting the potential for Qualcomm's new AI accelerators [8]. Product Development - Qualcomm's first AI accelerator, the AI200, is set to launch in 2026, designed for cost-effective performance in large language models and AI inference [7]. - An upgraded AI250 accelerator is planned for 2027, promising 10 times the memory bandwidth of the AI200 [7]. Competitive Landscape - Qualcomm faces intense competition not only from Nvidia and AMD but also from tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and OpenAI, which are also developing AI accelerators [9][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding Qualcomm's ability to stand out in this competitive landscape may affect investor sentiment [10]. Future Outlook - While it is premature to conclude that Qualcomm's stock has turned a corner, the behavior of other AI stocks suggests potential for further gains [11]. - The low valuation and significant income growth could position Qualcomm favorably as it enters the AI accelerator market, potentially serving as a catalyst for stock price increases [12].

闻ण 经 吕 示 WSCN Economic Calendar | | 时间 | 内容 | 预期 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11月3日 周一 | | | | | | 数据 | 09:45 | 中国 10月RatingDog制造业PMI | | 51.2 | | | 23:00 | 美国 10月ISM制造业指数 | 49.2 | 49.1 | | | 待定 | 美国参议院有关推进拨款法案停止政府"停摆"的下一次 表决最早将于11月3日晚开始 | | | | 事件 | 待定 | 香港金融科技周于11月3日至4日举行 | | | | | 待定 | 香港金管局：国际金融领袖投资峰会将于11月3至5日举行 | | | | 11月4日 周二 | | | | | | 数据 | 23:00 | 美国 9月耐用品订单环比终值 | | | | | 23:00 | 美国 9月JOLTS职位空缺(万人) | | 722.7 | | 事件 | 01:00 | 2027年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话 | | | | 财报 | | Palantir、优步（Uber）、辉瑞 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for the electronic industry, driven by macroeconomic factors and ongoing developments in AI, storage, and consumer electronics sectors [6][4] - The report notes that the electronic industry index experienced a decline of 1.94% during the week, with mixed performances across sub-sectors such as consumer electronics and semiconductors [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key players in the storage, computing power, and consumer electronics sectors, particularly in light of recent price increases and technological advancements [6][5] Market Review - Domestic risk assets have generally declined, while overseas core assets remain strong, with significant gains in companies like Nvidia and Google [3] - The report mentions that the recent US-China trade negotiations have yielded positive results, contributing to a more favorable environment for the electronic sector [3] Industry Updates - The storage sector continues to see price increases, with NAND and DRAM supplies tightening, impacting consumer electronics pricing [6] - New AI products, such as the Quark AI glasses from Alibaba, are being introduced, indicating a growing trend in consumer electronics [4] - Nvidia's optimistic GPU shipment guidance and Google's increased capital expenditure forecast reflect strong demand in the computing power segment [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the storage, computing power, and consumer electronics sectors, including Luxshare Precision, Zhuhai CosMX, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation [6]

见闻财经吕历 WSCN Economic Calendar W 华尔街见闻 | 时间 | | 内容 | 预期 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11月3日 周一 | | | | | | 数据 | 09:45 | 中国 10月RatingDog制造业PMI | | 51.2 | | 23:00 | | 美国 10月ISM制造业指数 | 49.2 | 49.1 | | 事件 | 待定 | 美国参议院有关推进拨款法案停止政府"停摆"的下一次 表决最早将于11月3日晚开始 | | | | 待定 | | 香港金融科技周于11月3日至4日举行 | | | | 待定 | | 香港金管局：国际金融领袖投资峰会将于11月3至5日举行 | | | | 11月4日 周二 | | | | | | 数据 | 23:00 | 美国 9月耐用品订单环比终值 | | | | 23:00 | | 美国 9月JOLTS职位空缺(万人) | | 722.7 | | 事件 | 01:00 | 2027年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话 | | | | 财报 | | Palantir、优步 (U ...