Investment Highlights - The company is initiating coverage on Green Tea Group (06831) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 10.00, based on a P/E valuation method corresponding to a 10x P/E for 2026, positioning it as the leading enterprise in the domestic casual Chinese dining sector focused on Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine [1] - The company's future outlook is driven by increased takeout revenue and store expansion, with takeout revenue currently below the industry average but expected to rise as the company enhances its takeout business [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the proportion of stores in second-tier, third-tier, and lower cities is projected to increase from 21%/20% in 2022 to 25%/26%, indicating a positive trend in market penetration in lower-tier cities [1] - The company has opened 5 restaurants in Hong Kong and plans to open 10 and 13 new restaurants in Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, and North America in 2026 and 2027, respectively, marking steady progress in international expansion [1] Product Development and Store Model Optimization - The company is actively developing new dishes to attract diverse consumer groups, leveraging its strong R&D capabilities in fusion cuisine, which is expected to have low fashion risk and strong resilience [2] - The optimization of the single-store model has been achieved by reducing store size from 450 square meters to 300 square meters, leading to decreased rental and personnel costs, thus facilitating accelerated national expansion [2] - The company aims to improve same-store performance by increasing the takeout ratio from 23% in 1H25 to an estimated 28% in 2026, while also seeking new consumer anchors in affordable dining [2] - The company is considered to have attractive valuation potential [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 0.74, HKD 0.91, and HKD 1.1, respectively, with a CAGR of 22% from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The current valuation corresponds to a 7x P/E for 2026, with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 10, indicating an upside potential of 47% [2]
绿茶集团(06831.HK)：高性价比融合菜头部企业 外卖提升和门店扩张驱动增长