美股轮动新潮流：“抗AI”类股成避风港，科技股被“抛弃”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant sector rotation as investors shift focus from technology stocks, which are facing pressure due to concerns over AI disruption, to sectors with "anti-AI" characteristics that are less likely to be affected by AI technology [1][2]. Sector Performance - The S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative decline of approximately 2% over four days, with software stocks leading the decline at 9.9%, while the information technology sector has dropped 3.9%. In contrast, housing builders, transportation companies, and heavy machinery manufacturers have recorded strong gains, with respective increases of about 6.1%, 4.8%, and 4.0% [1]. - The consumer staples sector has also performed well, with a cumulative increase of 5.2% over the same period, potentially marking its best weekly performance since 2022 [1]. Anti-AI Sector Rise - Investors are increasingly turning to sectors characterized as "anti-AI," which include companies with tangible business operations that are not easily replaceable by AI. Housing builders and construction product manufacturers are seen as prime examples of this trend [3]. - Analysts note that the core activities of these sectors—manufacturing, distribution, and assembly—are not tasks that AI can easily replace. The housing construction index has risen over 10% since 2026, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's less than 0.8% increase [3]. Industrial and Chemical Stocks - Industrial manufacturers and transportation companies have also shown strong performance, achieving their best weekly results since May 2025. Companies like Deere & Co. and FedEx Corp. have seen increased investment due to declining interest rates and resilient U.S. economic data [3]. - The consumer staples and chemical sectors are also viewed as "anti-AI" companies. The consumer staples sector, including Dollar General Corp. and Dollar Tree Inc., has performed the best among S&P 500 sectors this week [4]. Market Dynamics - The shift in investor focus from technology stocks to more traditional sectors indicates a significant change in market dynamics, as many technology companies are perceived to be at risk of falling behind in the ongoing economic transformation driven by AI [2]. - Bank of America strategists have warned that the attractiveness of tech giants is waning, suggesting that small and mid-cap stocks may be better bets ahead of the midterm elections [5]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Bank of America estimates that large tech companies' capital expenditures in AI this year will reach approximately $670 billion, accounting for 96% of their cash flow, compared to just 40% in 2023 [6]. - The dominance of the "Big Tech" companies is facing significant threats as they no longer possess the best balance sheets or the largest stock buyback programs [7].