2026年美国经济冷热分化仍将扩大

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a coexistence of "summer of growth" and "winter of employment," with increasing operational pressure on small and medium enterprises and a divergence in consumer spending across different income levels [2] - The "employment-consumption" chain in the U.S. has significantly slowed down, with the unemployment rate continuing its upward trend since the second half of 2025 [2] Financial Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market in 2025 faced historical challenges due to tariff impacts, fiscal shifts, and industrial waves, but rebounded after initial shocks [2] - The AI investment narrative is under scrutiny as major tech companies increase capital expenditures despite shrinking cash flows, leading to a complex web of inter-investments and financing dependencies [2][10] Economic Projections for 2026 - The U.S. economy is expected to experience continued structural divergence, with a widening gap between the booming AI sector and a sluggish real economy [3] - The potential for stagflation in 2026 is highlighted, with loose monetary and fiscal policies unable to address the growing income and distribution imbalance [3] Labor Market and Inflation - The weakening trend in non-farm payrolls is anticipated to stabilize only by the first quarter of 2026, prompting further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4] - Core CPI is expected to reach a low point in early 2026 before gradually rising, making the Fed's 2% inflation target difficult to achieve in a non-recessionary environment [4] AI Investment and Market Volatility - The sustainability of the AI narrative in the stock market hinges on the need for companies to justify their substantial expenditures with returns, which may lead to increased volatility and the potential for weaker AI firms to fall behind [4][5] - The uncertainty in market liquidity is tied to the unpredictability of mid-term elections, which could affect investor confidence in the AI narrative [5] Fiscal Policy and Economic Pressure - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to remain high, with expectations of a 6.5% deficit rate by the end of 2026, indicating ongoing fiscal pressure [9] - The relationship between fiscal policy and electoral considerations is emphasized, with the need to balance the demands of lower-income residents against the continuation of AI trends [9] Long-term Economic Disparities - The K-shaped economic recovery reflects a long-term trend of increasing wealth disparity and a growing share of capital in the economy, exacerbated by the pandemic [5] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is noted, but traditional sectors remain under pressure, indicating a persistent "cold-hot gap" in the economy [5] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to continue easing monetary policy in 2026, with potential rate cuts depending on economic conditions, particularly if inflation does not constrain actions [7][8] - The Fed's decisions will be influenced by the performance of the AI sector and its implications for broader economic stability [8]